tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5296783708910336452024-03-14T01:30:57.873-07:00Synthetic InformationTaking shots at Junk Science when appropriate | Climate Change | Vostok Project | Critiques | Scholarly | References | Hardware Software Experiences | Narrated Algebraic Chess Notation | Alpha-Bravo Algebraic | Applied Mathematics | YouTube Stuff | How to write | Some poetry | Elephants | *** Click tabs below for current page updates ***Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-63580297797775852952015-03-24T12:33:00.000-07:002015-03-29T02:56:25.305-07:00Global Warming Skeptic and Greenpeace Founder - Dr Patrick Moore<h2>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-31696452127091094612013-10-20T10:24:00.004-07:002015-06-26T10:39:03.592-07:00Why Do Climate Models Fail? <div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: red;">Published in Synthetic Information October 8, 2013</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">Updated JULY 18, 2014</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">Updated August 10, 2014</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">Updated October 10, 2014</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">Updated November 28, 2014</span><br />
<span style="color: red;">Updated March 24, 2015</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;">"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts." </span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-size: large;">- Richard P. Feynman</span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red; font-size: large;">"Rational skepticism is the foundation of Science."</span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-size: large;">- Any real scientist</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;">Climate change is inevitable. </span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-size: large;">-The Management</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;">Statistical inference is the enemy of causality.</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;">- The Management</span><br />
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We are very far from the knowledge needed to make good climate policy, writes leading scientist Steven E. Koonin</h2>
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<span style="text-align: right;">WSJ:</span> <a href="http://tinyurl.com/laszrku">http://tinyurl.com/laszrku</a><br />
Leading American Scientist Steven E. Koonin writes about fundamental problems inherent to Climate Models. Echos criticism of Climate Models we have identified for some years in this blog.<br />
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The fact that IPCC climate models have failed to accurately forecast the climate is a huge problem for the credibility of Climate Science.<br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Over the years we have predicted on theoretical grounds that non-causal climate models, such as the IPCC models, would inevitably fail when extrapolated into the future. </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Specifically, we outlined weaknesses in the methodology of climate modeling that lead to such failures. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue;">See below previous posts for reference:</span><span style="color: blue;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #38761d; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Why Must Climate Models Fail on Extrapolation?</span></div>
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<a href="http://syntheticinformation.blogspot.com/2013/05/why-climate-models-fail-at-extrapolation.html">http://syntheticinformation.blogspot.com/2013/05/why-climate-models-fail-at-extrapolation.html</a></h4>
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<b><span style="color: blue;">Published in Synthetic Information May 11, 2013</span></b></h4>
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<span style="color: #38761d; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Why is Global Averaged Temperature a Non-Thermodynamic Quantity?</span><br />
<a href="http://syntheticinformation.blogspot.com/2013/10/why-is-global-averaged-temperature-anon.html">http://syntheticinformation.blogspot.com/2013/10/why-is-global-averaged-temperature-anon.html</a><br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;">Published in Synthetic Information October 8, 2013</span></b><br />
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<span style="color: #38761d; font-size: large;">What is Modeling?</span></div>
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<a href="http://syntheticinformation.blogspot.com/2011/07/what-is-modeling.html">http://syntheticinformation.blogspot.com/2011/07/what-is-modeling.html</a></h4>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>Published in Synthetic Information July 5, 2011</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large; text-align: left;"><b>ABSTRACT and INTRO</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In the hard sciences such as physics, physical theories like Newtonian mechanics, Maxwell's electrodynamics, Einstein's General Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, Quantum Electrodynamics, and the Weinberg-Salam-Glashow Electro-Weak Interaction Theory, to mention a few, have secure, and rather rigorous mathematical formulations, and are capable of making predictions which agree with best highly sophisticated experimental tests, within their energy ranges of validity. That is, the above theories have been tested by rigorous, repeatable, controlled experiments over many trials, over many years. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Scientists Use the Scientific Method: </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>What's That?</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">This procedure of testing predictions of theory by experiments, so as to provide rigorous re-confirmation of predictive accuracy, is known as the scientific method. The scientific method is the means of progress in the natural sciences. </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><i>If you are not using the scientific method, you are not doing science.</i></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;">"Extraordinary claims, as the saying almost goes, demand more scrutiny than usual to make sure they stand up. That is how science works. Claim and counter-claim: intellectual thrust and experimental parry." REF: Nature October 14, 2014</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">SIDE BAR </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The scientific method applied to climate models</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In order to apply the scientific method to climate models, we must identify the hypothesis being tested when we compare climate observations with the predictions of climate models. Not as easy as it sounds.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Hypothesis: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Existing climate models can be used to forecast the climate accurately.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Scientific Test Procedure for climate models:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Step 1</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Obtain climate model predictions for the evolution of climate observables over some future time interval.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Step 2</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Wait around while observers (experimentalists) collect accurate data over the time interval. (assumes observers use accurate calibrated monitors for the quantities being measured, and that they don't fudge the data)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Step 3</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Compare data collected </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">(values obtained for measured observables during the time interval of interest) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">to predicted values of those observables over the same time interval.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Step 4</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">If the comparison shows the model's prediction deviated significantly from the observed data over the time interval, the climate model being tested is invalidated. Hence, the hypothesis: </span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">"Climate models can accurately forecast the climate (over the stated time interval)" </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">would be disproved.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Notice that the hypothesis we can test is not this: </span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">"Does human activity cause future global warming?"</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Instead it's this: </span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">"Did the climate model being tested accurately predict the future of the climate (as claimed by its proponents) or not?" </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><span style="color: red;">If a climate model prediction is contraindicated by the data, the model is considered invalidated, and the hypothesis is disproved.</span> </span><br />
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<span style="color: orange; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>Back to climate theory and climate models...</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In clear distinction to physical systems described so accurately by the above theories from physics, the earth's climate has no such rigorous testable theory. Why is that? Good question. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Part of the Answer:</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Unlike the above mentioned physical theories, controlled experiments are not available to test climate theories. Why not? Well, w</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">e do not have sufficient control over the enormous collection of variables required to determine the state of the earth's climate. This limits or precludes controlled repeatable experiments of the sort needed to test climate theories. </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Simply put, controlled experiments cannot be done on the earth's climate.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>The Other Part of the Answer:</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">We scientists do not have a rigorous causal theory of the earth's climate. More on causality in physical theories later. </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">What?? You mean we have no way to test a global climate theory, even if we had a global climate theory, which we don't? Yeah, that's exactly what I mean. Deal with it.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Ok, given that we don't have controlled climate experiments, nor a rigorous causal climate theory, what do we have instead? Well, we have climate models. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Climate Models</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Right. So what are climate models? Read on.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Models of the sort used by the climate modelers play a rather minor role in the hard sciences. That's why you don't hear much about models or modeling in the hard sciences. Modeling is generally viewed as a low level activity mainly useful for analysis of experimental data. It comes as no surprise to scientists that climate models are so often wrong, and so often modified. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia; font-size: large;">In this paper, we examine modeling, its inherent flaws, assumptions, and limitations. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia; font-size: large;">Further, we identify a few commonly encountered misapplications of climate modeling as currently practiced. </span></div>
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<b><span style="color: blue; font-size: large;">Central Problem, a Question and Discussion</span></b></h4>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="color: red;">Perhaps the central problem with climate models is that they do not obey physical causality. </span> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">What is meant by the term physical causality? Why is it bad for a model or theory to disobey it? </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Read on for more on these questions, but first:</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">We ask the question:</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Is the methodology of climate modeling fundamentally unsound? </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Further, we examine the track record of climate forecasting models. Over the past two decades substantial new climate data has become available from accurate sophisticated monitoring and imaging systems. We will highlight global sea ice measurements made by modern satellite imaging systems. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Importantly, these new data were acquired <b>after</b> climate modelers made their predictions about sea ice. More generally, climate forecasting models are now subject to a host of new critical tests. Did their widely publicized predictions come true? </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">How badly have climate model forecasts missed the mark?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In science, if model disagrees with new data in any significant way, that is, if a model forecast or prediction is contraindicated by new data, the model is invalid, or just plain wrong. Maybe the model can be fixed up, and maybe not. When model predictions exhibit significant long term divergence from new data, it's a strong indication that the underlying methodology of the model is fundamentally unsound. That's how the scientific method works for models of observable quantities.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In scientific modeling, new models are always suspect. Old models can be valid, but only if they are validated by new data. Further, valid old models that diverge from new data become invalid old models. The scientific method requires rather stringent conditions be met by models, and models are happily discarded if they don't make the grade. If something is learned from the erroneous model, we have scientific progress. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In climate modeling, new models are bad unless proved good by experiment. That is, new models have no scientific standing or claim to validity until validated by actual observed agreement with future data. The graveyards of science are filled by new models that subsequently failed to pass rigorous testing and repeated confirmation by experiments.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Should the Lemon Law Apply to Climate Models?</span></span></h4>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">When climate models are churned out annually, biannually, or multiannually, newly tweeked to fit the latest data, as new models, they have no validity. Model validity is only acquired if predictive accuracy is demonstrated over many future years, without further tweaking. Models that undergo periodic tweaking to agree with new data become little more than curve fitting exercises, no matter how fancy the graphics. </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">This kind of ad hoc methodology amounts to little more than pure empiricism.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In science, old models may be valid or invalid. New models are always invalid (or unvalidated) until tested. They may become validated after they demonstrate substantial agreement with new data (i.e. data collected after the release date of the model in question.) </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Climate modelers are in an embarrassing situation. Searching q</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">uestions about the validity of the climate modeling industry are being asked. Is the climate modeling process fundamentally flawed? </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Is climate modeling a lemon? </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">When we purchase a new car that breaks down, and is generally unreliable during the next year after purchase or repair, the car is considered a lemon and can't be fixed. We have legal grounds to return the car to the manufacturer and get our money back. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">If a pharmaceutical company comes up with a new drug, how do we consumers know it's effective and safe? We don't, nor does anyone else know. We only find out by clinical trials over many months or years that confirm effectiveness and safety. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Like new untested drugs, new climate models should be considered unusable until thoroughly tested and proved effective over time. If we hold climate models to this clinical standard, well...the old models didn't make it through clinical testing, and new ad hoc models probably won't either. </span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: small;"><i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 26.8799991607666px; text-align: left;">For climate models, a miss (systematic divergence from new data) is as good as a mile (total invalidation.)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 26.8799991607666px; text-align: left;"> </span></i></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Our broker would say: It's probably time to sell climate modeling short. Take the loss, and get out of that position. </span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">BACKGROUND: </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Extravagant Claims of Predictive Accuracy</span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Recall that the proponents of climate models themselves made repeated extravagant claims of the predictive accuracy of their models. E</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">xtravagant claims of predictive accuracy must be backed up by extraordinary agreement with future data.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">For the climate modelers, a miss is as good as a mile.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Misapplication of models has given the process of modeling a bit of a shady reputation in scientific circles. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: left;">Long term systematic disagreement with new data might be an indication that a critical piece of the physics of the system is not included in the model. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; text-align: left;">However, in modeling</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: left;">, long term systematic disagreement with new data is often the result of a much deeper problem. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; text-align: left;">Stated in a formal way, </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: left;"> long term systematic disagreement with new data can be a consequence of fundamentally unsound methodology inherent in the process of modeling. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In the following, we observe that </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">non-causal models of complex systems inevitably fail on sufficiently long time scales. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #3d85c6; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In a recent piece in Nature, climate modeling was </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">caricatured</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> as educated guesswork combined with fancy graphics.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">What is Global Average Temperature?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Real Scientists know this about GAT:</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Global Average Temperature is not a measure of the heat content of the Earth's atmosphere. Nor is it a valid thermodynamic quantity. It turns out that changes in Global Average Temperature do not tell us how much heating or cooling is occurring in the atmosphere. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Here's why.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">(A bit technical, but here is a brief description of the difficulty.)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The Earth's atmosphere is not in a state of thermodynamic equilibrium, hence the rigorous physical theory of heat, Thermodynamics, does not apply to the Earth's atmosphere. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">This means that Thermodynamic formulas cannot be applied to the atmosphere as a whole. Hence there is no rigorous theory of the heat content of the atmosphere as a whole.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Instead of thermodynamics what do we have?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">In order to make progress, fluid theory makes use of an assumption called local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). LTE is not a bad approximation in much of the atmosphere, but not so good at high altitudes. Most physicists would be inclined to accept the validity of LTE in the atmosphere and perhaps rely on fluid transport equations for modeling purposes. However, there is a non-trivial difficulty in the fluid equation approach in the case of earth's atmosphere.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">In LTE systems thermodynamics is valid locally, (in small volumes of gas inwhich the temperature is constant throughout), the amount of heat in such a small volume of atmospheric gas is not given solely by the local temperature. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Instead, one needs the local temperature and a quantity known as the local specific heat of the atmospheric gas. The product of local temperature, gas density, and local specific heat yields a measure of the total heat content of a small local volume of the atmosphere. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;">However, we don't really measure the heat content of the Earth's atmosphere, nor do we know it as a function of time.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The heat content of a local sample of the atmosphere is dependent on the local specific heat per particle, on the local composition of gas species in the atmosphere, and on many other variables including the local composition of clouds, water vapor, dust, and the like.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">This presents a problem for climate models. The values of this local specific heat, and local atmospheric composition are not known (measured) throughout the real atmosphere of the Earth. The local heat content depends on many variables, not all of which are measured or known accurately everywhere in the atmosphere.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">More on this later, as space permits...</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="color: red;">The Fallacy of Proxy Time</span> </span></span></h4>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Fallacy: </span></span><i style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.088001251220703px; text-align: left;">noun</i><br />
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a mistaken belief, especially one based on unsound argument.</div>
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"the notion that the camera never lies is a fallacy"</div>
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<tr><td class="lr_dct_nyms_ttl" style="font-style: italic; padding: 0px 3px 0px 0px; vertical-align: top; white-space: nowrap;">synonyms:</td><td style="padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.google.com/search?espv=2&biw=1536&bih=752&q=define+misconception&sa=X&ei=zs62U5aqNIKAoQTM94HwBw&ved=0CB4Q_SowAA" style="color: #660099; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">misconception</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?espv=2&biw=1536&bih=752&q=define+misbelief&sa=X&ei=zs62U5aqNIKAoQTM94HwBw&ved=0CB8Q_SowAA" style="color: #660099; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">misbelief</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?espv=2&biw=1536&bih=752&q=define+delusion&sa=X&ei=zs62U5aqNIKAoQTM94HwBw&ved=0CCAQ_SowAA" style="color: #660099; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">delusion</a>, mistaken impression, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?espv=2&biw=1536&bih=752&q=define+error&sa=X&ei=zs62U5aqNIKAoQTM94HwBw&ved=0CCEQ_SowAA" style="color: #660099; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">error</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?espv=2&biw=1536&bih=752&q=define+misapprehension&sa=X&ei=zs62U5aqNIKAoQTM94HwBw&ved=0CCIQ_SowAA" style="color: #660099; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">misapprehension</a>,misinterpretation,<br />
<a href="https://www.google.com/search?espv=2&biw=1536&bih=752&q=define+misconstruction&sa=X&ei=zs62U5aqNIKAoQTM94HwBw&ved=0CCMQ_SowAA" style="color: #660099; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">misconstruction</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?espv=2&biw=1536&bih=752&q=define+mistake&sa=X&ei=zs62U5aqNIKAoQTM94HwBw&ved=0CCQQ_SowAA" style="color: #660099; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">mistake</a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="color: blue;">An example of sketchy methodology used in climate modeling is the use of proxy time in animations. </span> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">How is proxy time used? </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Many climate models make use of an artificial time variable, sometimes called proxy time. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Proxy time is used like this:</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: justify;"> A sequence of static images are attached to an artificial time variable. When the sequence of images are played back, one has what appears to be a time dependent animation. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Why is this is a risky procedure?</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: justify;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">It's risky and misleading because the real time dependence of the system being modeled need not follow the animation. Such models do not obey strict causality (they are non-causal models) even though they may be made to appear causal when animated using proxy time. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Proxy time animations generate pretty pictures that have no causal interrelationship. That's dangerous and (often) misleading to the viewer. Such animations need not follow the actual time evolution of the real physical system being modeled. They give a fake future of the system being modeled. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><i>Animations of an anvil falling on the Coyote do not accurately simulate a real anvil falling on a real Coyote. </i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>Climate model animations using proxy time might appropriately be called Climatoons or Proxytimeatoons.</i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>Proxy time Climatoons are not educational, cool, cute, or funny. They are misleading to the uninformed, and of little scientific value. </i></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>Don't be fooled by Climatoons. </i></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Climate Models and Climate Forecasting</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In the following we observe that climate models used and misused to predict the future are more accurately termed climate forecasting models. Climate forecasting models get no credit for predicting the past. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Agreement with past data is no guarantee of future predictive accuracy.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Recall that vocal proponents of climate forecasting models, themselves, have made repeated extravagant claims of predictive accuracy. We might say those proponents are guilty of repeated extravagant claim making. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: justify;">How good is the track record of climate forecasting models? Now we can find out. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: justify;">O</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: justify;">ver the past few decades substantial new climate data has been accumulated using sophisticated monitoring and imaging technology. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">This new and extensive climate data present more rigorous tests of the widely announced predictions of climate models. It is now clear that </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">new climate data accumulated 1995-2013, when compared to predictions of pre-1995 climate models show that those models have often (nearly always) diverged significantly from the real climate. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="text-align: left;">In the following, we compare a few egregious climate model predictions to new data, and explain our view that the methodology used in</span><span style="text-align: left;"> climate models is </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">inherently flawed.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">We observe that </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">non-causal models of complex systems inevitably fail on sufficiently long time scales. This kind of failure is a consequence of flawed methodology, and can't be fixed.</span></span></div>
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<b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Climate forecasting models and their failures.</span></b></h2>
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<b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Recall that in the 1990s many IPCC Climate models predicted a steady year-on-year reduction </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">of north polar sea ice. Some models even predicted the north polar ice cap would melt entirely by 2013. These climate model predictions received so much publicity over the decades, that (probably) no reference source is needed. Remember the sad polar bears on floating ice blocks?</span></b></div>
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<b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #38761d; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">SIDE BAR</span></b><br />
<b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #38761d; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">What about sea level rise?</span></b></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #38761d; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>If all the sea ice melts how much will sea level rise? Answer: Zero. </b></span></span><br />
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<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Why is that? As is well known since antiquity, Archimedes' principle of buoyancy can be formulated as: The amount of water displaced by a floating object is equal to the weight of the floating object. Ice floats because its density is lower than that of liquid water. So, when a floating block of sea ice melts, and turns into a liquid, it exactly fills in the space displaced by the solid block before it melted. No change in sea level. </span> </b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Here's the latest data, and it's really impressive.</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Since 2005 substantial new detailed data on arctic sea ice coverage has been collected using sophisticated satellite imaging technology. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>For example, we now have excellent data on sea ice coverage from the <i style="background-color: white;">Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility</i><span style="background-color: white;"> (</span><a href="http://www.osi-saf.org/index.php" style="background-color: white; color: #0c2d83; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">OSISAF</a><span style="background-color: white;">). </span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Typical of this satellite data is the graph below from DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice for the daily ice coverage plotted for each of the years to date 2005-2013.</b></span></span></div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8C-oMj-A1x4/UmQAnk7OhLI/AAAAAAAAAWM/jR37YuFHH1o/s1600/Arctic+Sea+Ice+Coverage+Data+2005-2013.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="624" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8C-oMj-A1x4/UmQAnk7OhLI/AAAAAAAAAWM/jR37YuFHH1o/s1600/Arctic+Sea+Ice+Coverage+Data+2005-2013.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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REF: This data and graph from DMI Center for Ocean and Ice</div>
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<a href="http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php">http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php</a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">FIG. 1: The above figure is a copy of a figure published by DMI Center for Ocean and Ice. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">They caution that the absolute calibration of the area coverage may be a bit uncertain. That is, the y-axis tic marks may be uncertain by a proportional scale factor. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However,</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> the relative accuracy year-on-year is good.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Click the link above for the original graphic on their website and more on these details. </span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">What data is plotted in this graph?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Fig. 1 shows detailed data on seasonal variations (from January 1 through December 31) of sea ice area (in units of millions of square kilometers,) for the years 2005 through 2012, and January to date (mid-October) of 2013. Data for each year is color coded by the legend at the lower left of Fig.1. The black curve displays the most recent data from the current year, 2013.</b></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Some observations on these data:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">First, the maximum north polar sea ice coverage occurs in the month of March, and the maximum area of coverage ranges from roughly 10.5 to 11.5 million km^2. The minimum sea ice coverage occurs in the month of September, and the minimum sea ice coverage area ranges from roughly 2.5 to 4.3 million km^2. Every year the sea ice area cycles between these maxima and minima in March and September.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Second, we observe that the north polar sea ice coverage over 2013 (black curve) is generally higher or comparable to the average of years 2005 through 2012.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Third, in the month of October 2013 the measured arctic sea ice extent is relatively larger than all previous year's October coverage. That is, arctic sea ice reached record high levels in October 2013, </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">according to month-on-month comparisons over available data from previous years (2005-2012.)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Fourth, i</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">n the year 2013 there is plenty of north polar sea ice in existence, comparable to previous years. The polar ice cap did not completely melt down, nor cease to exist.</span></span><br />
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">What can be said about the accuracy of IPCC climate model predictions?</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">First, it is clear that many of the highly publicized IPCC climate model predictions about polar ice cap meltdown or steady year-on-year sea ice reductions did not occur. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Second, but most importantly, we can say that many IPCC models are contraindicated by this new data. When model predictions fail to match new data in any significant way, the model is invalidated. Hence those IPCC models are proved to be invalid by data from the field.</span><br />
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Can those models be fixed up? We doubt it. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">We observe that </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">non-causal models of complex systems inevitably fail on sufficiently long time scales. This kind of failure as a consequence of flawed methodology, and can't be fixed.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Of course, models can be tweeked, modified or otherwise fixed up after they fail. When modelers do this in a way that agrees with the latest data, we have a new model. After such ad hoc fixes, the new models are considered invalid until they demonstrate significant long term agreement with new data,</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;"> without further tweeking. </span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">More on proxy time:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">The parameter representing time, the time variable, does not appear in the physical theory of thermodynamics. One has thermodynamic state variables, but no time variable. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Further, many climate simulation models do not support a time variable at all. For example, steady state flow models of the earth's ocean and atmosphere solve a set of equilibrium equations (with boundary) that do not have time as a variable.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: x-small; text-align: justify;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;"> </span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">How can such models having no time variable, be used to predict the future time evolution of the system? </span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Many such models make use of an artificial time or proxy time. Some quantity that varies monotonically with time, is used as a substitute for the time variable. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">For, example, during time periods where atmospheric CO2 concentration is increasing steadily (monotonically) with time, one can plot model output as a function of CO2 concentration. Some modelers convert the independent variable from CO2 concentration to a proxy time variable in order to plot the model output as a function of proxy time.</span><br />
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">What are non-causal models good for?</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Paradoxically, non-causal models can be very useful for near term and periodic predictions. Non-causal predictive weather models are examples short term, day-to-day, and seasonal periodic forecasting. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large; text-align: justify;"> </span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Successful Non-causal Models Exist and are Especially Useful for Describing Periodic Phenomena.</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Interestingly some non-causal models can exhibit excellent long term predictive capabilities in a restricted range of model parameters for simple systems. For example, Newtonian gravitational field theory coupled with classical Newtonian mechanics is a non-causal model.</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Why do we say Newtonian gravity is non-causal?</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">The Newtonian gravitational field equations are non-causal because they exhibit instantaneous action at a distance. There are no gravitational waves or propagation speeds for changes in the Newtonian gravitational field. General relativity on the other hand, does exhibit causality, there is no "action a a distance" in general relativity. Changes in the metric propagate at the speed of light in general relativity. </span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">SIDEBAR</span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">(Note for experts: Small amplitude spacetime metric perturbations described by the General Relativistic gravitational wave equations propagate at c. Some exotic processes such as inflation or</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> various non-linear large amplitude perturbations</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> can make the spacetime metric change much faster). </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;">Back to Newtonian Mechanics...</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Further, Newtonian mechanics does not obey the rules of special relativity. Despite these problems, Newtonian mechanics can work quite well as a predictive theory.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">For simple systems, e.g. planetary orbits and the like, standard Newtonian gravity and mechanics have excellent predictive capabilities and often show impressive long term agreement with measured motions of planets, asteroids, some comets, slow speed space ships, etc. In many cases, the agreement with new measurements (data) extends over many years and many orbital periods. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Importantly, periodic or quasi-periodic phenomena are often well described by non-causal models.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">But Newtonian mechanics does not always work. The theory is contraindicated by measurements of time evolution of the perihelion of the planet Mercury. Further, Newtonian mechanics does not work for objects having velocities approaching the speed of light. Nor does Newtonian mechanics predict the observed deflection of light by massive objects (gravitational lens effect.) Enough on Newtonian mechanics for now.</span><br />
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<h4>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">What about Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Data?</span></h4>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o0NuvJqrZRY/UmzKXDZowRI/AAAAAAAAAWs/88A6LdEs9oQ/s1600/Southern+Hemisphere+Sea+Ice+Coverage+1979-2013.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="452" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o0NuvJqrZRY/UmzKXDZowRI/AAAAAAAAAWs/88A6LdEs9oQ/s1600/Southern+Hemisphere+Sea+Ice+Coverage+1979-2013.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Fig. 2 Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area, Seasonal Variation by Year.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">This data from agencies NOAA, NSIDC, and University of Bremen. Original data plot from this site: </span><a href="http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html">http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html</a><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Briefly, the extensive data in this composite plot shows seasonal variations in southern hemisphere sea ice extent over 34 years from 1979 through 2013. We observe that record high sea ice extent occurred in 2013 yellow curve, and in 2012, red curve.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Of course, climate change is inevitable, but a 34 year data set is a rather small time period compared to the historic time scales of climate changes which occur on time scales of multi-decades, centuries, and millennia. The data presented in Fig. 2 indicate a rather stable climate over the timescales available so far.</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Back to climate models...</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Climate models used and misused to predict the future are more accurately termed climate forecasting models. Climate forecasting models get no credit for predicting the past.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Now let's examine the predictions of 73 (!) current climate forecasting models, and then compare them to real temperature data obtained for the years 1979 through 2012. </span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-70HRq4jfkgU/UzJrxYqKcWI/AAAAAAAAAhs/j2yhU2taeHU/s1600/Comparison+of+Climate+Models+to+Observations+R.+Spencer.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="545" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-70HRq4jfkgU/UzJrxYqKcWI/AAAAAAAAAhs/j2yhU2taeHU/s1600/Comparison+of+Climate+Models+to+Observations+R.+Spencer.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>Fig.3 Comparison of Climate Models to Observations from the paper by R. Spencer et al. his Fig. 2 (reference to follow.) </b></span><br />
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<h3>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">What quantities are plotted in the graph shown in Fig. 3?</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">In the above figure atmospheric temperature measurements made over a period of 32 years are plotted as data points on the graph. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">These temperature data were obtained from both satellite instruments and balloon borne instruments over the decades long timescales indicated in Fig.3.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Climate model predictions are also plotted in Fig. 3 as color coded solid curves. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">The black curve represents the running average of all 73 models.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">If these climate models were any good, they would agree with temperature measurements shown in the data plot. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Instead of good agreement with the temperature data, what we see is long term systematic divergence of all 73 climate models from the data.</span><br />
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<h3>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Observations and Conclusions Fig. 3 </span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> Notice all models predict substantial global warming (consensus of models!) while no models agree with the real climate data. Recall that models that disagree with new data in a systematic fashion are thereby proved to be invalid. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Because the models are so bad, the obvious systematic divergences with real data can</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> readily be seen by even the most casual inspection of Fig.3. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">It's clear that all 73 climate models in the figure have been invalidated by real world temperature measurements. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Further, we can observe that the divergence-from-new-data of the above plotted climate models is in agreement with our prediction that non-causal climate models must inevitably diverge from new data. That is, climate models such as these must fail upon extrapolation into the future.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">(Why are there so many distinct climate models? Hint: Such models are termed semi-empirical models. Semi-empirical models contain many adjustable parameters, aka fudge factors.) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> </span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">We can summarize the predictive performance of climate models by box scores below. A model scores 1 point in the event it demonstrates significant long term agreement with the corresponding new climate data sets. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">How are climate models doing?</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Here are the box scores:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>Earth's Real Climate </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>vs. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>Climate Models</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">BOX SCORE 2013 </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Earth's Climate: 73</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Climate Model Predictions: 0</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></b>
<b style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: x-large;">Extravagant claims of accuracy </b><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><b>vs. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><b>Inevitable failure of extrapolation</b></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">BOX SCORE 2013 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">IPCC climate model extrapolation accuracy: 0</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Synthetic Information prediction of failure: 1</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">We will add further examples of failure of climate models on extrapolation as time permits.</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
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<h3>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">What about modeling of much simpler systems? </span></h3>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">How's that going?</span></h3>
<b style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large;">We observe that the US National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore Labs in California was extensively modeled by fluid codes that are much more sophisticated and accurate at what they do, than are climate models. </b><br />
<b style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large;"><br /></b>
<b style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;">What is NIF?</span></b><br />
<b style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large;"><br /></b>
<b style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large;">The NIF generates 192 powerful laser beams of UV light that are used to compress fusion targets aka pellets and heat fusion fuel in the target so as to achieve ignition of nuclear fusion reactions. Fluid modeling codes were used to predict the performance of the NIF.</b><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Those state of the art fluid code models were used to validate the design of the NIF, and predicted that the NIF should achieve ignition of a nuclear fusion reaction in carefully designed targets containing fusion fuel. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>The NIF was constructed and put into operation a few years ago. After a year long campaign of experiments in 2012 scientists found that NIF targets did not reach ignition conditions in the lab. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Box Score:</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Nature 1</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Models 0</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>The NIF is a fantastic scientific instrument for studying matter at extreme conditions of pressure and temperature. The scientific value of NIF is extraordinary. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>We might say that the most important science from NIF so far was the invalidation of the fluid models. Such knowledge gained by rigorous testing of model predictions by means of precise experiments is central to scientific progress.</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: red; font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>UPDATE ON NIF: FEB 12, 2014</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="color: red;">Lawrence Livermore NIF team announces achievement of fusion energy gain greater than unity using a redesigned laser pulse strategy. </span></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="color: red;"> Congratulations to the NIF team. </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="color: red;"> </span> </b></span><b style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"> </b><br />
<b style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Citation: </b><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13008</span><br />
<span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">"Energy gain greater than unity" means fusion energy generated by the laser driven implosion of the target is greater than the energy deposited in the fusion target by the laser beam pulse. An important milestone has been reached in the quest for fusion ignition. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">However, energy gain of unity is not fusion ignition. Ignition would require a much larger energy gain, and that has not been achieved yet by NIF. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">Roughly speaking, ignition means that after an initiating laser pulse, the fusion fuel would continue to generate fusion energy (to burn) in a self-sustaining nuclear fusion reaction. Like a miniature sun, the fusion target would continue to shine on its own, until its fuel is exhausted.</span><br />
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<span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>The Earth's climate system is a much more complex and challenging problem for fluid code modelers than is the NIF. It will take many decades of advances in the state-of-the-art of climate modeling to approach the accuracy of the Livermore fluid codes. Until a long track record of correct predictions of the actual future behavior of the Earth's climate is demonstrated by climate models, the models cannot be considered ready for prime-time. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>SIDE BAR</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>_________________________________________</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>What's the Greenhouse Effect?</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Attributed to early writings of astronomer Carl Sagan, the Greenhouse effect refers to absorption of "heat radiation" by atmospheric gases of a planet e.g Venus. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b>What is Heat Radiation?</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: medium;">Heat radiation is electromagnetic radiation (light waves) emitted by any warm substance as a consequence of thermodynamics. It's the reason hot steel glows in red, orange, yellow colors when heated in a blacksmith's forge, and the reason the Sun is yellow in color. Heat radiation can be viewed as a gas of photons having a temperature comparable to the temperature of the surrounding material surfaces. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The wavelength spectrum of heat radiation in a vacuum enclosure is well described by the Planck radiation theory which predicts a continuous wavelength spectrum given mathematically by the Planck Radiation Formula.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If the heat radiation is emitted into a gaseous material, the gas molecules will interact with the electromagnetic waves and may selectively absorb electromagnetic waves of certain wavelengths. A broad wavelength spectrum of electromagnetic radiation passing through a gas will therefore be attenuated in certain wavelength ranges called "absorption bands." </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">....to be continued. (2/18/2014) </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Q: Is there a trend toward lower or higher minimum sea ice coverage in the time series data plotted in Fig. 1? Or, no significant trend either way?</b></span><br />
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<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: xx-small; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Here we do a quickie trend analysis of the data in Fig. 1. Observe that the time series only has nine years. This kind of simple analysis is appropriate for small time series data sets. Of course, there are many many statistical analysis methods available, but with only a nine point sample, it's appropriate to use a simple and easy to follow method.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">One way to get at the above question is simply to order the years 2005- 2013 from least to greatest sea ice coverage in mid-September. (We chose mid-September for this analysis because northern hemisphere sea ice reaches its annual minimum in the month of September. One could repeat the analysis below for other dates as well.) </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">If there is a trend toward lower sea ice coverage year to year, the next year in time sequence would be more likely to have lower sea ice. <span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">However, if it's equally likely to get higher or lower ice coverage in the next year, then there's no trend toward lower sea ice coverage. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">So the question becomes, is the next year, after any given year, more likely to have lower sea ice coverage?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">For example, if there was a steady (monotonic) decrease in mid-September sea ice area from 2005 through 2013, (as predicted by global warming climate models) then the lowest mid-September coverage would have occurred in 2013. Every previous year would have higher mid-September sea ice area, and 2005 would have the highest mid-September sea ice area out of the set of all years in the sample. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Now we can analyze the data in Fig. 1, and see what we get. </span><br />
<span style="line-height: 27px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Note: We use </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">the original higher resolution figure on the DMI website to read off sea ice area for each year in mid-September. Then we order years by relative minimum sea ice coverage in mid-September. That is, the lowest mid-September minimum occurred in 2012, the next lowest in 2007, and so on, </span><span style="line-height: 27px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">for each year 2005 through 2013.</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 27px;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 27px;">Here's our data collected from Fig. 1: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="line-height: 27px;"><span style="color: blue;">Lowest mid-September sea ice area occurred in 2012, blue curve</span>; <span style="color: #3d85c6;">next lowest</span></span><span style="color: #3d85c6;"><span style="line-height: 27px;"> </span><span style="line-height: 27px;">2007, </span><span style="line-height: 27px;"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 27px;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">light blue curve</span>;</span><span style="line-height: 27px;"> <span style="color: magenta;">next lowest </span></span><span style="line-height: 27px;"><span style="color: magenta;">2008, magenta</span>; <span style="color: #f1c232;">next lowest 2011, yellow;</span> <span style="color: #e69138;">next lowest 2010, orange</span>;</span><span style="line-height: 27px;"> <span style="color: #0b5394;">next lowest </span></span><span style="line-height: 27px;"><span style="color: #0b5394;">2009, baby blue or cyan</span>; <b>next lowest 2013, black</b>, <span style="color: red;">next lowest 2005, red</span>,</span><span style="line-height: 27px;"> and <span style="color: #38761d;">highest sea ice coverage in mid-September occurred in </span></span><span style="line-height: 27px;"><span style="color: #38761d;">2006, green curve</span>.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="line-height: 27px;"><b>Conclusion:</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 27px;">That is, there is no systematic, year-to-year downward or upward trend, in northern hemisphere mid-September sea ice coverage, for the years for which we have mid-September data, 2005 through 2013. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 27px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 27px;"><b>One can see why this is so by examining year-to-year, <span style="color: red;">increases</span> or <span style="color: #38761d;">decreases</span> in mid-September sea ice area in our data set above:</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 27px;">From 2005 to 2006 the ice area <span style="color: red;">increased</span>, from 2006 to 2007 ice area <span style="color: #38761d;">decreased</span>, from 2007 to 2008 ice area <span style="color: red;">increased</span>, from 2008 to 2009 ice area <span style="color: red;">increased</span>, from 2009 to 2010 ice area <span style="color: #38761d;">decreased</span>, from 2010 to 2011 ice area <span style="color: #38761d;">decreased</span>, from 2011 to 2012 ice area <span style="color: #38761d;">decreased</span>, from 2012 to 2013 ice area <span style="color: red;">increased</span>. We have <span style="color: red;"><u>four cases of increasing</u></span> ice area and <span style="color: #38761d;"><u>four cases of decreasing</u></span> ice area over the period 2005 through 2013. Hence no trend of increase or decrease in mid-September sea ice area over the period 2005-2013. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 27px;">Of course, there are many ways to analyze the data in Fig. 1. The above analysis gives a good indication of the existence or non-existence of a trend in a simple, easy to understand way. </span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 27px;">The above ordering of years by mid-September sea ice coverage area shows no systematic downward or upward trend.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 27px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">(TO DO: some graphics to show the lack of a significant trend) </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;"><b>"In science and elsewhere, we support freedom of inquiry, rational skepticism, and do not assume the conclusion." </b></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;"><b> - The Management</b></span></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-20810216042268645402013-10-14T23:12:00.000-07:002013-11-29T20:32:06.976-08:00Alpha Bravo Alegbraic: A Spoken Chess Notation Optimized for Listener Comprehension<div align="right">
<span style="color: red; font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">Most Recent Update November 8, 2013</span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">NACN 2.0</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: times new roman; font-size: 31px;">A Spoken Chess Notation </span></h2>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: times new roman; font-size: 31px;">Optimized for L</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: 'times new roman'; font-size: 31px;">istener Comprehension</span></h2>
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<strong><span style="color: blue; font-family: times new roman; font-size: 24px;">Ranks and Files of the Chessboard</span></strong></h3>
<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">Narrated Algebraic Chess Notation (NACN) encodes algebraic chess notation letters a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h for chessboard files as spoken English words. In NACN, files of the chessboard are encoded for narration (speaking aloud) as:</span></strong></div>
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<em><strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, Golf, Hotel</span></strong></em></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">Ranks of the chess board numbered 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 are encoded as the English spoken words:</span></strong></div>
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<strong><em><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six, Seven, Eight</span></em></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">In NACN we use the standard algebraic chess notation of the ranks and files of the chessboard, encoded by the IRSA/ICAO spelling alphabet.</span></strong></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;">NACN Chessboard</span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">The International Radiotelephony Spelling Alphabet (IRSA) is also known as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) spelling alphabet. </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">IRSA/ICAO encoding is the most widely used spoken spelling alphabet. Airline pilots, air traffic controllers, civil aviation pilots are proficient in the use of this spoken spelling alphabet. </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">Moreover, IRSA/ICAO is optimized for communication. </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">Decades of tests and usage have shown that IRSA/ICAO provides a most accurate means of spoken alphabet communication over noisy audio transmission channels. </span></strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>For detailed information on the IRSA and ICAO spoken spelling alphabets, and their variants check out this Wikipedia article: </b></span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="color: blue; font-size: 24px;">Chess Pieces</span></strong></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">The standard English names of the chess pieces can be used in narration with excellent clarity. Narrations making use of standard piece names: <i>King, Queen, Bishop, Knight, Rook, and Pawn</i> are unlikely to be misunderstood by chess players.</span></strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="color: blue; font-size: 24px;">Chess Moves in Narration </span></strong></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="color: red; font-size: 21px;">SIDE BAR:</span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">First we observe that chess moves when spoken aloud consist of grammatical sentences. When narrating chess moves, observe the grammatical rules, think of moves as full sentences. However, chess notation and NACN encodes a move in such a way that it may not look like a full sentence. However, NACN moves and algebraic chess notation moves should decode into full sentences.</span></strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">For example: </span></strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">1. e2-e4 in algebraic notation decodes as the sentence: </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">"On move one white moves his pawn on the square e2 to the square e4."</span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">or</span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">" White's first move is pawn on e2 to e4."</span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="color: red; font-size: 21px;">END SIDEBAR</span></strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="color: blue; font-size: 21px;">Chess Moves in NACN</span></strong></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="color: red; font-size: 24px;">TAKES <i>Tango</i></span></strong></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">The term "takes" as in: "d1 knight takes bishop on e3" or simply "Knight d1 takes on e3" or Nd1 x e3 can be narrated using IRSA "<i>Tango" </i>for takes<i>.</i></span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><i><br /></i></span></strong></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>NACN for the above two sentences would be:</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>"<i>Knight Delta One, Tango, Bishop Echo Three.</i>"</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>or</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>"<i>Knight Delta One, Tango, Echo Three.</i>"</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><b style="font-family: 'times new roman'; font-size: 21px;">Here we use the standard practice of capitalizing the first letter of each code word. Notice that algebraic notation for Knight is N, but NACN for Knight is the spoken word "<i>Knight.</i>" </b><br />
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<b style="font-family: 'times new roman'; font-size: 21px;">The use of commas and periods in NACN are important guides to the narration. Commas are observed by the narrator in his narration of the moves. The slight pauses indicated by commas are very important in accurate verbal communication. </b><br />
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<b style="font-family: 'times new roman'; font-size: 21px;">Moves are numbered as usual in algebraic chess notation. The spoken move number would "<i>move ten</i>" or "<i>White move ten</i>" or "<i>Black move ten</i>"</b><br />
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="color: blue; font-size: 24px;">Special Moves and Terms: </span></strong></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="color: blue; font-size: 24px;">Tango, Castles Kilo, Castles Quebec, November Papa </span></strong></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="color: red; font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>CASTLES<i> Castles</i></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>NACN for the move castles kingside or O-O, is "<i>Castles Kilo</i>"</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>and "castles queenside or O-O-O" is narrated as "<i>Castles Quebec</i>"</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>Here <i>Quebec</i> is the phonetic code word for the letter Q, and is pronounced as KEH-BECK. This follows the IRSA/ICAO standard spoken spelling alphabet for the letter Q as does<i> Kilo</i> for the letter K.</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 21px;"><b>Pawn promotion:</b></span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>Pawn promotion consists of a move and a piece name like "f7-f8 Queen."</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>NACN for pawn promotion is:</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>"<i>Foxtrot Seven, Foxtrot Eight, Queen.</i>" or </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>"<i>Pawn Foxtrot Seven, Foxtrot Eight, Queen.</i>"</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>and </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>Pawn promotion via capture, e.g. f7 x g8 Queen would be NACN encoded as "<i>Foxtrot Seven, Tango, Golf Eight, Queen.</i>"</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>The word "to" is sometimes used in casual conversation to narrate a move like e2 - e4. It's probably better to not use "to" in narration because it sounds exactly like the number 2 or "two." </b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>The use of the word "to" will be addressed in detail in NACN 2.1</b></span></span><br />
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<h4>
<span style="color: red; font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;">Pawn Captures en passant: November Papa</span></span></h4>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">The pawn move "White pawn on e5 captures black pawn en passant on d5 and moves to d6 on white's tenth move." can be written simply in algebraic notation as "10. e x d6 e.p." One and only one e-pawn can legally move to d6 via e.p. capture, so the notation is unambiguous, though cryptic. Notice that, the only way for the e5 pawn to get to d6 on this move is to capture en passant. </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">Strictly speaking, y</span></strong></span><strong style="font-family: 'times new roman';"><span style="font-size: 21px;">ou don't even need the "e.p." for this move, it can simply be written as e5 x d6 or e x d6. </span></strong><br />
<strong style="font-family: 'times new roman';"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong>
<strong style="font-family: 'times new roman';"><span style="font-size: 21px;">Probably it's best to use the move notation <i>and</i> e.p. to be clear that we want the reader to understand that a capture en passant took place, and not a typo.</span></strong><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">NACN encodes the move e x d6 e.p. as: "<i>Echo, Tango, Delta Six</i>." </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">or "<i>Echo Five Pawn, Tango, Delta Six</i>" or </span></strong></span><strong style="font-family: 'times new roman';"><span style="font-size: 21px;">"<i>Echo, Tango, Delta Six, November Papa</i>."</span></strong><br />
<strong style="font-family: 'times new roman';"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">Rendering en of e.p. phonetically as "n" encoded as November, and "p" of e.p. as Papa. </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">So "en passant" is encoded as "<i>November Papa</i>." </span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;">It's usually ok to just go ahead and say "en passant."</span></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></span>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b>If the audio communication channel is unusually noisy, then "<i>November Papa</i>" is necessary.</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 21px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;"><b>Check, Checkmate, Draw, Resigns</b></span></span></h3>
<div>
<span style="font-family: times new roman;"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div>
</div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red;">Check in NACN</span>: </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">The move Q e2 check is encoded:</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">"Queen Echo Two, Check."</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red;">Checkmate in NACN</span>:</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">The move Q f3-f7 checkmate is encoded:</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">"Queen Foxtrot Three, Foxtrot Seven, Mate," or </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">"Foxtrot Three, Foxtrot Seven, Mate." </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red;">The move resigns</span> is encoded as </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">"Zulu" or "White Zulu" or "Black Zulu" </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">as the last move of a game in which white or black resigns.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red;">Draw outcome and kinds of draw</span></span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">A draw outcome of a game can occur in six ways. </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">They are NACN encoded as: </span></b><br />
<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">1. Draw agreed:<i> "Draw Alpha" </i></span></b></span></b></div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">
</span></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-size: large;">2. Draw by stalemate: <i>"Draw Sierra" </i></span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">3. Draw by perpetual check:<i> "Draw Papa"</i></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">4. Draw by three fold repetition:<i> "Draw Romeo" </i></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">5. Draw by fifty non-pawn moves:<i> "Draw Five Zero" </i></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-size: large;">6. Draw by insufficient material: <i>"Draw India" </i></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Or simply,<i> "Draw"</i> can be used if the type of draw is obvious or unimportant. </span></b><br />
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<h3>
<strong><span style="color: blue; font-family: times new roman; font-size: 24px;"><br /></span></strong></h3>
<h3>
<strong><span style="color: blue; font-family: times new roman; font-size: 24px;">EXAMPLE:</span></strong></h3>
</div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">The standard algebraic notation chess moves:</span></strong></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">1. e4 e5, 2. Nf3 Nc6, 3. Bb5 a6</span></strong></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">encoded in Narrated Algebraic Chess Notation (NACN) become the spoken phrases</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;"><br /></span></strong></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">></span></strong></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;"></span></strong></div>
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</div>
<div align="left">
<strong><span style="font-family: times new roman; font-size: 21px;">1. </span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><em>Echo Four, Echo Five. </em></span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">2. </span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><em>Knight Foxtrot Three, Knight Charlie Six.</em></span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;">3. <em>Bishop Bravo Five, Alpha Six.</em></span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><em><br /></em></span></span></strong>
<strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><em><br /></em></span></span></strong>
<strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><em><br /></em></span></span></strong>
<strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><em>________________________________</em></span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: 21px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman;"><em><br /></em></span></span></strong></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-59725843371800922472013-10-08T10:51:00.007-07:002013-10-27T22:36:03.833-07:00Why is Global Averaged Temperature a Non-Thermodynamic Construction?<br />
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<div style="text-align: right;">
<b>draft Updated October 27, 2013</b><br />
<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;">"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts."</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;">-Richard P. Feynman</span></b></div>
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<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: blue;">Some Common Misconceptions in the Meaning and Uses of Temperature and Heat</span></h2>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">First, temperature itself is not a measurement of heat. <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Second, volume averaged temperature is not a measure of volume
averaged heat. </span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Third, the atmosphere and ocean are not systems in thermodynamic
states of equilibrium. <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Fourth, the construction of an average temperature from a
collection of disparate non-equilibrium thermodynamic systems gives a quantity
that does not obey the laws of thermodynamics. <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<h3>
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: large;">The global average temperature as a non-thermodynamic construction.</span></span></b></h3>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">A constructed quantity like global average temperature, is termed
an "exterior quantity." That is, "global average
temperature," is not part of the physical theory of thermodynamics.
Global average temperature is exterior to the physics of thermodynamics
and has no meaning expressible as a thermodynamic variable. </span></b></span></b></div>
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">
</span></b>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Another feature of the theory of thermodynamics is that time is not a variable in the theory. It simply does not appear.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">So, a
different, non-thermodynamic theory is needed to give global average
temperature meaning. One approach is to model the real atmosphere as a
collection of coupled thermodynamic systems each one of which has a well
defined thermodynamic state. Seems reasonable. But such made-up systems need
not behave like the real atmosphere. That is, model predictions will diverge
from new data over time and not accurately predict future behavior. More on this
later.</span></b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<h3>
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: large;">
So what is heat anyway?</span></span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></b></h3>
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<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">In order to measure changes in the heat
energy in the atmosphere, one also needs a physical quantity called the local
specific heat. Heat is a form of energy and changes in the quantity of heat energy in
a region of the Earth's atmosphere are measured using the product C x T of the "specific heat density product" C of atmospheric air at a particular position (longitude, latitude, altitude) with the local changes in temperature T and other thermodynamic variables. This product must be evaluated for every sufficiently small volume V of air in the region of interest in order to calculate the changes in the total thermal energy (heat) in a region of the atmosphere. However, this is a simplification of the thermodynamics. For more details read on, skip over the details if you like.</span></b></div>
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b>
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<h3>
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">__________________________________________</span></b></h3>
<b><span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Strictly speaking, the definition and use of specific heat needs some further technical details. Read on for more technical thermodynamics details, or skip the next four paragraphs, if you want.</span></b></span></b></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Specific heats Cp, Cv are usually given in units of Joules per Kevin per kilogram of gas at constant pressure Cp, or Joules per Kelvin per cubic meter at constant volume Cv, or Cn Joules per Kelvin per particle at constant number density per species. </span></b></div>
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Mathematically, a thermodynamic state space is a topological manifold having a (local) differential structure. The coordinates of the manifold are the thermodynamic variables that appear in the equation of state of the system. The laws of thermodynamics are stated in terms of differentials associated with the local differential structure. </span></b></div>
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><b style="color: blue; font-size: 13.5pt;">How does thermodynamics account for changes in which the system gains or loses heat? </b></span></b></div>
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">In the theory of thermodynamics, some thermodynamic processes can be defined by curves in the state space of the system. The process starts at the initial state, at one end of the curve, and proceeds to the final state, the point at the other end of the curve. If the system remains in equilibrium states throughout the process, the process is represented by a continuous curve. For example, if a process takes place at constant pressure, then Cp is unchanged in the process, which makes easier the calculation of the amount of thermal energy lost or gained</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"> by the system, over the process. </span></b></div>
<br />
<b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Further, in thermodynamics the amount of heat in a system is not a state function. That is, only the difference in heat output or input "Delta Q" for a given thermodynamic process start to finish is available. There is no heat function Q(P,V,T,N,...) of the coordinates of the manifold. The amount of heat gained or lost, Delta Q, depends on the shape of the curve or path in state space connecting the initial and final states of the process. </span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">One way to describe this, is to recognized that the differential heat change dQ is not an exact differential.</span></b><br />
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">So what is needed to calculate the amount of heat gained or lost in a process?</span></b></div>
<br />
<b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">In order to obtain dQ one uses the equation dQ = T dS where T is the absolute temperature and S is the entropy of the system at each point in the state space of the system. Unlike Q, both S and T are state functions. </span></b><br />
<br />
<b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Further, one needs the equation of state of the system. The equation of state defines a sub-manifold of equilibria embedded within the general abstract state space of the system. Thermodynamic processes of the system can be represented by curves on this sub-manifold. In order to compute the integral of dQ along such a curve one integrates TdS along the curve. One needs to know the entropy as a function of all state variables, S= S(P,V,T, N1, N2, N3, ...) restricted to the equation of state sub-manifold. </span></b><br />
<br />
<b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Of course, in the real world not all processes can be described by such continuous curves in state space. We will not discuss such such non-quasi-static processes here. </span></b><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">In thermodynamics we have that S=0 when T=0, that is, at absolute zero temperature the entropy is zero. This provides a "baseline reference" for the function S and the variable T.</b></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Further, in a non-equilibrium system like the Earth's atmosphere and oceans, one needs to calculate the T dS integral for each sufficiently small volume (LTE volume) of the system and then sum the result over all such volumes. That is, one needs a state space integration and a physical volume integration to obtain net increases or decreases in heat content of the atmosphere and oceans. </b></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">The job of getting an accurate measure of warming or cooling from thermodynamics is a rather complex task. Usually simplifying assumptions must be made, in order to make progress.</b></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">To simplify our discussion we define a variable C, a volumetric specific heat summed over gas species. For example, if rho is the mass density of a gas species at a given pressure p, then our C would equal rho x Cp giving our C in units of Joules per Kelvin per cubic meter for a gas sample at pressure p. One needs to know the density of each species and its specific heat at constant pressure and sum over all species in the atmosphere to get our C for that atmospheric composition... </span></b></b></div>
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</b>
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<h3 style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: #38761d; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Missing pages are being polished OCT 27 back in a few days _________________</span></b></h3>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-9695666474366495122013-05-11T08:40:00.000-07:002015-03-29T02:58:18.638-07:00Why are Climate Model Forecasts Unreliable?<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: blue;"> draft Update October 20, 2013</span> </div>
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<div style="text-align: right;">
<h2>
<span style="background-color: white; color: red; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: large; font-style: italic; line-height: 18px;"><b>"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" </b></span></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: red; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: large; font-style: italic; line-height: 18px;"><b>– Richard Feynman</b></span></h2>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large; font-weight: normal;">Why Must Climate Models Fail at Extrapolation?</span></h2>
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<b><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">What is modeling, anyhow?</span> </b></h3>
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<b>Good question. Generally, in the physical sciences and elsewhere, "Modeling" is a term having a specific meaning. Here is a simple definition.</b></div>
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<b>Modeling is a procedure for numerical fitting of existing sets of observational data by means of continuous functions having a collection of adjustable parameters. Even modeling based on a set of partial differential equations contains many adjustable parameters, hence such modeling amounts to fitting data by adjusting parameters. Such modeling does not obey the strict laws of physical causality. </b><br />
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<b>We observe that numerical simulations of model PDE's having many adjustable parameters and simplifying assumptions, such as the GSM models, really amount to the same non-causal modeling we are describing here. Pretty pictures though. </b><br />
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<b>If people are interested in more information about the validity of GSM models upon extrapolation, or in parameter studies, let me know. </b><br />
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<b>These non-causal models are useful to scientists. They can be adjusted to fit sets of existing data so as to provide a visual representation of time series data. Extrapolation of such models into the future may or may not fit new data. The model extrapolation that does not fit new data is said to diverge from the data. </b><br />
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<b>We see this type of divergent behavior in 1990's era climate model predictions from climate data collected over the past two decades. [REF to be added] </b><b>For example, over the past decade the annually time averaged and geographically averaged mean temperature data displays no warming trend, while IPCC climate models predicted continuous accelerated warming throughout the decade. We should not be surprised by this fact.</b><br />
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<b>Models that make use of numerical solution of coupled sets of fluid equations (PDFs) to model complex time dependent physical phenomena such as earth's climate, suffer from the same core causality and extrapolation problems as simpler parameter fitting models. In this sense they are mathematically equivalent to parameter fits. They contain part of the physics, but not all of the physics of the complex system. The present discussion applies to such numerical models, as well. </b><br />
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<u style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Climate, Weather, and Multiple Timescales.</span></u></h3>
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<b>We need to talk about multiple timescales in climate and climate models.</b><br />
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<b>Climate phenomena exist on many timescales, and each averaging timescale generates a unique climate. </b><br />
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<b>When discussing climate and weather, it is essential to be specific about the timescale of change. That is, one must specify a characteristic averaging timescale before one can talk about the climate (on that timescale.) </b><b>Earthly phenomena described as "Climate" and "Weather" take place over an astonishingly wide range of timescales. In general, we can be talking about minutes, hours, days, months, years, decades, centuries, millennia, tens of thousands years, hundreds of thousands of years, millions of years, and longer. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>For example, the Vostok ice core data discussed in a previous post on this blog, provides evidence for periodic climate cycles on time scales of thousands of years up to hundreds of thousands of years, but gives little information on the hundred year and shorter timescales, nor is there information about millions of years and longer timescales. From the Vostok data it is clear that the earth is undergoing a many thousands of years long warming cycle, and in roughly 5000 years will begin a cooling cycle leading to another ice age. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>Such cyclic phenomena on these long timescales are likely to repeat because they have done so in the past over many cycles for hundreds of thousands and millions of years. One can reliably predict that the earth will begin a cooling cycle and a repeat of the ice age cycle in a few thousand years. These cycles are believe to be caused by long period oscillations in the earth moon sun orbital dynamics and related precession of the earth's axis of rotation. Such three body orbital dynamics can be calculated and extrapolated with great accuracy. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>What about the timescales ranging from one year to one thousand years? On these timescales daily variations of the weather and seasonal changes are averaged out, and one can look for trends and cycles having periods of a few years to a thousand years. These timescales are the shortest timescales that can be treated as climate change timescales. On these shorter timescales, the distinction between climate and weather becomes less obvious and more arbitrary. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>Because of this multiple timescale property of climate and weather, it is possible for the climate and weather to be warming on a shorter timescale and be cooling on a longer timescale. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>Paradoxically, it is entirely reasonable for the climate to be warming and cooling at the same time.</b><br />
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<b>More precisely stated, it is entirely possible for the climate to be cooling on the decade timescale, and simultaneously warming on the thousand year timescale. Decade long cooling trends may average-out over thousand year timescales. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>There is much more that may be said about multiple timescale analysis of weather-climate phenomena. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>For now, remember this: Climate and weather changes occur on an extended hierarchy of timescales. In particular, record high or low temperatures on any given day week or month are considered changes in weather, not climate. </b><br />
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<b>Hence, when we measure the properties of the climate, we must average thermodynamic properties like temperature, pressure, etc. over at least a few, and preferably many full years.</b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>For example, one should avoid the commonly made mistake of claiming the climate is warming (or cooling) without clearly understanding the timescale of the phenomenon. A warming or cooling trend may extends through a larger hierarchy of climate timescales, or not.</b><br />
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<b>The existence of this extensive hierarchy of climate timescales is of central importance to the field of climate science, and is itself one of the most important properties of climates. </b><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><u>Time dependence in modeling</u></span></h3>
<b>Ok, so time dependent models do this: A model generates output over a time interval. Time is an independent variable which labels and orders the output data. Model output consists of sets of values of the dependent variables. These numbers are the stuff the model generates. We say the observational data is "modeled" by time ordered (or parameterized) sets of numbers generated by the model. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>Another class of models are time independent. No time variable is used in these kinds of models. For example, models of steady state flow are time independent models. In the following, we will be talking mainly about time dependent models, though many of the properties we discuss apply to all models including time independent ones.</b><br />
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<b>In some cases time independent models can be used to construct a parameterized sequence of solutions. The result is analogous to an animated video. The illusion of time evolution is generated by a sequence of still images or static equilibria. Such parameterized sequences of equilibrium solutions are often useful as visualizations of phenomena, but strictly speaking they do not obey causality. They do not necessarily follow the evolution of a specific real physical system into the future.</b><br />
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<b>Now, back to the problem with climate models.</b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>1.0 Models cannot predict anything in a causal sense.</u></span></h3>
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<b>The central aim of modeling is to provide a simplified analytic function or set of functions that match discrete data points and interpolate between them. <i>Models, therefore, do not predict anything in a causal sense.</i> Models simply generate sets of numbers that may be compared to sets of observations.</b></div>
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<b> In this discussion, we view data as a collection of discrete points embedded in an abstract continuum parameter space. Independent variables might include time, physical location, incident solar radiation flux, etc. Dependent variables are variables that can be identified with data. Examples of dependent variables are local temperatures, or the non-thermodynamic quantity "global average temperature" we hear about. </b><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: small;">Why is global averaged temperature a non-thermodynamic quantity?</span></span></span></h3>
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<b>First, temperature itself is not a measurement of heat. </b></h3>
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<b>Second, volume averaged temperature is not a measure of volume averaged heat. </b></h3>
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<b>Third, the atmosphere and ocean are not systems in thermodynamic states of equilibrium. </b></h3>
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<b>Fourth, the construction of an average temperature from a collection of disparate non-equilibrium thermodynamic systems gives a quantity that does not obey the laws of thermodynamics. </b></h3>
<b><br /></b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>A constructed quantity like global average temperature, is termed an "exterior quantity." That is, "global average temperature," is not part of the physical theory of thermodynamics. Global average temperature is exterior to the physics of thermodynamics and has no meaning expressible as a thermodynamic variable.</b></span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, a different, non-thermodynamic theory is needed to give global average temperature meaning. One approach is to model the real atmosphere as a collection of coupled thermodynamic systems each one of which has a well defined thermodynamic state. Seems reasonable. But such made-up systems need not behave like the real atmosphere. That is, model predictions will diverge from new data over time and not accurately predict future behavior. More on this later.</span></b><br />
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<b><br /></b><b>So what is heat anyway?</b><b> </b><b>[For a more detailed look at specific heat and a discussion of the thermodynamic definition of heat, see the next blog post.] A quantity of heat has units of Joules, the unit of energy in the S.I. system of units, because heat is a form of energy. A more familiar unit of energy in S.I. units is the kilowatt-hour. 1 kilowatt-hr = 3.6 million Joules.</b><br />
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<b>Of course, two regions of the atmosphere having different local temperatures are not themselves in thermodynamic equilibrium. Thermodynamic equilibrium is a state having equal temperature throughout the volume of interest. Classical thermodynamics is valid only for systems in equilibrium. </b><b> If one wants to treat temperature and specific heat as position dependent quantities, a further assumption is necessary. O</b><b>ne must invoke the concept of local thermodynamic equilibrium. Small volumes are in approximate equilibrium <i>within a sample volume</i>, and have well defined constant temperatures inside it.</b><b> </b><b>In the lower atmosphere this is a pretty good approximation, but less good in the ionosphere. One encounters this stuff in elementary thermodynamics courses at the university level.</b><br />
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<b><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Back to Modeling in General</span></b></h3>
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<b>Here's a simple characterization of what a model is. A model is simply a function that maps independent variables to sets of numbers that may be compared to sets of observations, i.e. data sets. </b><br />
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<b>[ For fans of computational fluid dynamics: Coupled PDE sets of fluid equations can be viewed as models in the above sense. Numerical simulation using such systems of PDEs can be viewed as a model function (or functions.) The numerical output (data) can be viewed as the value of a model function. The output may then be compared to experimental data points obtained in time dependent experiments in the same way that curve fitting generates time parameterized output.] </b><br />
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<b> (I believe there is a mathematical proof that PDE simulations can be viewed as functions having adjustable parameters. If enough people ask, I will attempt to reproduce the proof. It's kind of technical and may be of interest only to specialists. Or, it may be obvious to some.) </b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>1.1 Models of physical systems need not contain any physics.</u></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>Instead they contain hidden variables and adjustable parameters.</u></span></h3>
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<b>Besides independent variables, models contain a set of hidden variables. Hidden variables are usually of two kinds, fixed parameters and adjustable parameters. </b><b>They are used to formulate the functions that generate the output variables of the model. </b><b> </b><br />
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<b>Fixed parameters come from underlying laws of physics or other solidly trusted sources. Their values are taken as given. For example, the Boltzmann constant or the speed of light in vacuum would be considered fixed parameters in some models.</b><br />
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<b>Adjustable parameters are hidden variables whose values can be specified arbitrarily. For a given set of specified values of the adjustable parameters, a specific model is obtained. Different models are easily obtained by changing the values of the adjustable parameter set. </b><br />
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<b>Notice there is no requirement that models obey the laws of physics. Rather, models are sets of functions that generate numbers that may be compared to observational data sets.</b><br />
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<b>Modelers try to optimize their models by judicious choice of the set of adjustable parameters, by removing unnecessary adjustable parameters, etc. </b><br />
<b>How do we know when the model is optimized? </b><b>One way is to validate it by comparison to a data set.</b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>1.2 What is a validated model?</u></span></h3>
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<b>To validate a model the </b><b>modeler first needs a data set of observations to model. </b><b>This data set is necessarily a pre-existing set of observational data. </b><b>This data set is sometimes called the base data set. </b></div>
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<b>Here's how the validation process goes....</b><br />
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<b>To validate the model, the modeler goes through a tweeking process where various values of the adjustable parameters are tested, and model outputs are compared to the base data set. The comparison is usually made quantitative by some "goodness of fit" measure. Goodness of fit is a number or set of numbers that measure how well the model output emulates the actual observed data. For example, the sum of mean square differences between model variables and the base data set could be a goodness of fit parameter. The smaller the better. This fitting procedure is usually done numerically, but can be done by eye in simple cases. </b></div>
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<b>So far, we have the model output that is restricted be "close to" existing data, because that data is what we are trying to fit. Such models are very useful for data analysis. It is nice to have continuous curves that fit discrete data points. If nothing else, it helps us visually examine data sets, spot trends, gain intuition about the data. All great stuff.</b><br />
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<b>Notice there is a range of independent variables that is comparable to the range of the independent variables of the base data set. The goodness of fit is done in this restricted range. That's where the existing data is. </b></div>
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<b>If you are given values of the population of California for each census year, you will have a time dependent data set. However, you will have no data for the year 2040. So it is not possible to fit the model to the year 2040. Hence it is not possible to validate the model for this year. To make progress, we would fit the</b><b> population model, say a straight line, to existing data. The range of the time variable would be restricted to the existing data. </b></div>
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<b>Once a satisfactory set of values for the adjustable parameters has been found, the model may be considered validated within the range of the data set. Models are not considered valid outside their range of validation. </b><br />
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<b>When models are used for extrapolation, the extrapolation must be re-validated as new data becomes available. In this way, past extrapolations can be invalidated and identified as such.</b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>1.3 Model differential equations and pseudo-causality.</u></span></h3>
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<b>Modelers often spice up the mix by invoking sets of model differential equations that may be solved numerically to propagate the model into the future. Thus models may contain time dependent differential equations having derivatives emulating causal behavior. </b><br />
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<b>Such model equations may have some physics in them, but inevitably they leave out important physical processes. Hence,</b><b> they are not truly causal because they do not obey the causality of the underlying laws of physics. Such time dependent models may be termed pseudo-causal to distinguish them from the fully causal laws of physics. More on causality later.</b><br />
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<b>Numerical models that solve truncated sets of fluid equations such as General Circulation Models (GCMs) are examples of pseudo-causal models. A short summary of these types of models can be found in this Wikipedia article: </b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_climate_model">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_climate_model</a><b> This article gives some flavor of the complex layering of approximations, assumptions, simplifications, and adjustable parameters present in such models. </b><br />
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<b>In conclusion, extrapolations based on GCM's are not guaranteed to agree with future observations. Rather the opposite, all extrapolations must diverge from future observations. These models are might be called "approximately causal." However, strictly speaking, a model that claims to be approximately causal would require a rigorous mathematical treatment of the approximations used and theory of the expected rate of divergence from the real physical system. The state of the art in such modeling is not sufficiently mature to have a reliable characterization of the of these rates of divergence. </b><br />
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<b>In short GCMs and other models require the same disclaimer as stock brokers:</b><br />
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<b> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: red;">"Past performance is not a guarantee of future accuracy."</span></b></h3>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>1.4 Can models provide "too good" a fit to the base data?</u></span></h3>
<b>If a model has enough adjustable parameters it can fit any data set with great accurcy, e.g. John von Neumann's Elephant. </b><b> Excessively large sets of adjustable parameters provide deceptively pretty looking data plots. Actually it is considered bad practice to fit the data with too many parameters. Over parameterized models have many problems, they tend to have more unreliable extrapolations, have derivatives that fluctuate between data points, exhibit rapidly growing instabilities. </b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: red;">Paradoxically, models that produce impressive agreement with base data sets, tend to fail badly in extrapolation. </span></b><br />
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<b>If the fit to the basis data set is too good, it probably means the modeler has used too many adjustable parameters. A good modeler will find a minimal set of basis functions and a minimal set of adjustable parameters that skillfully fit the base data set to a reasonable accuracy and so minimize the amount of arbitrariness in the model. T</b><b>his will also tend to slow the rate of divergence upon extrapolation. </b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>1.5 What are the basis functions of models?</u></span></h3>
<b>Models make use of a set of basis functions. For example, the functions X, X^2, X^3, X^4, ... are all divergent functions that are used in polynomial fits, also called non-linear regressions. The problem is, such functions tend to +/- infinity in the limit of large values of the independent variable X, and do so more rapidly for higher powers of X. The basis functions are unbounded, and extrapolations always diverge. </b><br />
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<b>One approach is to choose bounded functions for the basis set. Periodic functions {C, sin(X), cos(X), sin(2X), cos(2X), ...} where C is the constant function, would be an example of a set of bounded basis functions. At least extrapolations of bounded functions will not diverge to infinity. Comforting. </b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>1.6 Periodic phenomena make modelers look good.</u></span></h3>
<b> Many natural phenomena are periodic or approximately periodic. If a time series data set repeats itself on a regular basis then it can be modeled accurately with a small collection of periodic functions, sines and cosines. We do not have to solve the orbital dynamics equations in real time to predict with great accuracy that the sun will come up tomorrow. </b><br />
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<b>Complex systems may also display quasi-periodic behavior. So-called non-linear phenomena may repeat with a slowly changing frequency and amplitude. Simple periodic models tend to do very well in extrapolation over multiple periods into the future. Moreover, periodic models do not diverge upon extrapolation. They simply assert that the future is going to be a repeat of the past. </b><br />
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<b>When models extrapolate non-periodically, it's a red flag. Extrapolations of aperiodic (i.e. non-periodic) models are much more likely to be invalid, as discussed here.</b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>2.0 Extrapolation of models is inherently unreliable.</u></span></h3>
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<b>What about extrapolation? Often, modelers are asked to extrapolate their models beyond the validated range of independent variables. Into the unknown future, or elsewhere. <i>These extrapolations are notoriously unreliable</i> for several reasons, among them are (1) the fact that models do not obey causality, (2) they may not properly conserve invariants of the underlying physical system, and (3) are often mathematically unstable and exhibit divergent behavior in the limit of large dependent variable, (4) non-linear regression fits used in climate modeling are especially prone to instability. Such models would inevitably “predict” catastrophic values of the dependent variables as an artifact of their instability. </b></div>
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<b>Of course, no actual predicting is going on in such models, merely extrapolation of the model beyond its validated domain.</b></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>2.1 What's the difference between models and simulations?</u></span></h3>
<b>Often the distinctions between models and simulations may not be very important. Both might give us cool looking numerical output, including 3D movies. Cool, but is it real? That is, are we seeing just pretty pictures or does the display rigorously reproduce the full physics of a real system? </b></div>
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<b><br /></b><b>Sometimes the distinctions between models and simulations are important. In the scientific community two broad types of numerical computations are distinguished. They are Models and Simulations. So what's the difference? Both use computers right? Yes, but....</b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>The main difference is <i>simulations</i> solve the fundamental equations of the physical system in a (more or less) fundamentally rigorous fashion. It is important to carefully choose the thing you want to simulate. That is, simulations of physical phenomena are usually done in idealized and simplified systems where all relevant boundary and initial conditions are precisely specified. </b><br />
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<b>Simulations are not possible in large complex systems having imprecisely specified boundaries and physical phenomena exterior to the set of simulation equations.</b><i style="font-weight: bold;"> </i><br />
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<b><i>Models</i> by distinction, do not have to obey this standard of rigor, they can be greatly simplified versions of the problem, or might not even contain any real physics at all. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>For example, one of the most widely used types of models involve fitting of experimental data to sets of continuous functions. Variously curve fitting, linear regression, non-linear regression, are techniques that generate models of the data by simply fitting existing data with adjustable functions. No physics needed at all. Just fitting. But often very useful.</b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>So, models are open ended and can be more or less anything that accomplishes the purpose. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>Models can be seductive. "They look so real" but models cannot be as real as real reality(!) </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>This brings us to this issue of causality. It can be said models as a class do not obey the causality implicit in the complete fundamental physics equations of the system. This limitation is important to recognize.</b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>2.2 Simulations obey causality, models do not.</u></span></b></h3>
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<b>If a model were to include the real physics of the complete system, it would be a simulation, not a model. Simulations obey causality. Simulations usually consist of sets of time dependent coupled partial differential equations, PDEs, subject to realistic boundary/ initial conditions. Simulations are numerically solvable rigorous formulations of underlying physical laws. Further, even such sophisticated PDE based models contain adjustable parameters such as transport coefficients, and fall short in that they are themselves simplifications of the system. They do not contain or correctly model all relevant physical processes. They are themselves simplified models of the complete physical system.</b><br />
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<b>Here's an example of a simulation.</b><br />
<b>Simulations are often used to examine the evolution of temperature in fluid systems. If the temperature is non-uniform, then the system is </b><b>far from true thermodynamic equilibrium. However, fluids very often satisfy the requirements for local thermodynamic equilibrium. This simply means that a </b><b> local temperature can be defined in the medium. This temperature is represented a scalar field that varies continuously with location and time. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>Such systems will exhibit thermal transport, a characteristic of atmospheres and oceans. Often problems of thermal transport can be well described by relatively simple sets of fully causal partial differential equations. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>If robust numerical solvers exist then the complete equations can be solved very accurately by a <i>simulation code</i></b><b>. The output of the simulation code would then reliably predict the time evolution of a real system. That is, a good simulation will predict the future of the system. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>Of course, care must be taken that the numerical tools give us the right answer. As long as the solver is accurate, </b><b>the simulation is guaranteed to follow the same physics of causality as the real system. The output of a good simulation code is like a numerical experiment. It mirrors reality including the future (if done right.) </b><br />
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<b><span style="color: blue;">Examples of the Failed Extrapolations of Climate Models (new section)</span></b></h3>
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<b>We will add to this section as we collect examples. </b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<b>Climate Depot is a good source of data sets and critical discussion of the failings of climate models. </b><a href="http://www.climatedepot.com/">http://www.climatedepot.com/</a></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<b> Steve Goddard's blog Real Science </b><a href="http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/">http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/</a><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Recall that in the 1990s many IPCC Climate models predicted a steady year on year reduction </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">of North Polar sea ice. Some models even predicted the North Polar ice cap would melt entirely by 2013. These climate model predictions have received so much publicity over the years, that (probably) no reference source is needed.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Since 2005 we have excellent data on sea ice coverage from the <i style="background-color: white; text-align: left;">Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility</i><span style="background-color: white; text-align: left;"> (</span><a href="http://www.osi-saf.org/index.php" style="background-color: white; color: #0c2d83; font-weight: 600; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">OSISAF</a><span style="background-color: white; text-align: left;">). Typical of this satellite data is the graph below from DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice for the daily ice coverage plotted for each of the years to date 2005-2013.</span></span></div>
<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8C-oMj-A1x4/UmQAnk7OhLI/AAAAAAAAAWM/jR37YuFHH1o/s1600/Arctic+Sea+Ice+Coverage+Data+2005-2013.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8C-oMj-A1x4/UmQAnk7OhLI/AAAAAAAAAWM/jR37YuFHH1o/s1600/Arctic+Sea+Ice+Coverage+Data+2005-2013.JPG" height="390" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
REF: This data and graph from DMI Center for Ocean and Ice</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php">http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php</a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We observe from the above data that the north polar sea ice coverage in 2013 is generally higher or comparable to the average over years 2005 through 2012. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Further, in the month of October 2013 the measured arctic sea ice extent was relatively larger than all previous year's October coverage. That is, arctic sea ice reached record high levels in 2013.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">What can be said about IPCC climate model predictions?</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Clearly many of the highly publicized IPCC climate model predictions about polar ice cap melting did not occur. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We can say that the IPCC models are contraindicated by this new data, and hence must be considered invalidated models. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here's the box score:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">BOX SCORE 2013</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Earth's Climate: 1</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Climate Models: 0</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Over the years, in this blog, we have predicted that IPCC climate models would fail when extrapolated into the future. (See previous blog posts here) </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">As new data has accumulated and compared to previously made climate model predictions, our view has proved to be accurate. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">BOX SCORE 2013 </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Synthetic Information blog prediction: 1</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">IPCC climate model extrapolation accuracy: 0</span></div>
<div>
</div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u><br /></u></span></h3>
<h3>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u><br /></u></span></h3>
<h3>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u><br /></u></span></h3>
<h3>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>2.3 Subtle aspects of causality in physics lie beyond the scope of this discussion. But it's very interesting so... a few highlights.</u></span></h3>
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>In practice, most simulation codes solve formulations of the fluid equations and related field equations of classical physics. </b><b>In these cases the simple classical definition of causality is obeyed. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Quantum mechanics experts know that quantum mechanical systems have a probabilistic nature. When quantum effects are important, some aspects of causality are lost. However, even in quantum systems, the fundamental probability amplitudes, or wave functions of quantum theory, themselves obey differential equations that "propagate" these functions forward in time in a causal manner. Roughly speaking, the wave functions evolve continuously and causally in time such that the statistical properties of quantum systems, expectation values of observable single and multi-particle operators, revert to classical causality in the limit of "large quantum numbers." </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Even classical systems can exhibit stochastic or chaotic behavior in some situations. For example, the so-called butterfly effect. The task of simulating many-particle systems subject to stochastic or chaotic behavior is challenging. However, for the important case of many-particle systems having sufficiently many degrees of freedom, chaotic effects often tend to be "washed-out" by other effects. Perhaps this is an over simplification. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>A related and absolutely fascinating phenomenon of continuous fluid systems is the possibility of self-organization. The microscopic behavior of self-organizing systems can conspire to generate large scale organized flows. The jet stream in the earth's atmosphere is an example of such an organized flow, sometimes called a zonal flow. The jet stream is a vast high speed wind current in the upper atmosphere that can persist and move around as an organized entity. The color bands in Jupiter's atmosphere and the great red spot appear to be such zonal flows. Simulating the formation and evolution of such large scale organized flows is a challenging problem addressed in various atmospheric and oceanic simulation codes. Amazing stuff.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Now we are getting into specialized stuff that is way beyond the scope of this brief discussion. For more on this, consult the extensive popular literature. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Now let's summarize our conclusions about models, modeling, and the inherent unreliability of extrapolation. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<h3>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>2.4 Summary and Conclusions about Models.</u></span></h3>
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>In most fields of physics, models are considered useful tools for data analysis, but their known limitations and range of validity are widely appreciated. There are just too many ways for extrapolations of models to go wrong. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Models do not obey causality nor can they properly "predict" anything in the causal sense. Models provide sets of numbers that can be compared to sets of observational data. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Models are not simulations. Models</b><b> may contain: 1) none of the physics, 2) some of the physics, but not 3) all of the physics of the system. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Extrapolation of a model inevitably takes the model outside it validated domain. When extrapolation is necessary, it must be done conservatively and cautiously. Further, extrapolations must be validated against new data as it becomes available. Conservative extrapolations are more likely to be validated by future observations.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<h3>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u>3.0 Is the methodology of climate modeling inherently unreliable?</u></span></h3>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b>Now that we are familiar with the inherent limitations of models in general, an important question can be asked about the methodology of climate modeling. Are climate models being extrapolated beyond their domain of validity? It certainly seems to be the case, climate model extrapolations are often found to be in disagreement with new data that does not fit the extrapolated model. There is extensive literature available on this subject. </b><br />
<b><br /></b><b>We are concerned with a more fundamental issue. It seems non-causality is a property of the methodology of climate modeling. Climate models don't contain all of the relevant physics. </b><b>In a fundamental sense, such models cannot reliably predict the future of the real climate. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>We can also observe that it is incorrect that weight is given to inherently unreliable extrapolations of climate models. Especially troubling are extrapolations of such models beyond the known range of their mathematical validity. </b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b>Of course, most everyone in the hard sciences knows all of this. So my question might be reformulated as: </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Why are extrapolations of climate models given weight, when the methodology is known to be inherently unreliable in extrapolation? </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Models are not infallible and climate models are not infallible. Models are known to be unreliable when extrapolated beyond their validated range. </b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b>Maybe that's enough for the moment. Responses welcome. A little dialog is a good, but let's keep it on the top two levels of the Graham hierarchy.</b><br />
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-28199876572568680272013-03-26T22:34:00.004-07:002013-05-10T10:03:50.480-07:00How to Use Windows 8 with a Mouse...Yes! You Do Not Need a Touchscreen<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3iINZSSgyIA/UVuo6l9YxeI/AAAAAAAAAM0/iN3G0cOIAgk/s1600/Windows+8+Start+Screen+Extended+Desktop+Charms+Bar_edited-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3iINZSSgyIA/UVuo6l9YxeI/AAAAAAAAAM0/iN3G0cOIAgk/s640/Windows+8+Start+Screen+Extended+Desktop+Charms+Bar_edited-1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Windows 8 Extended - Two Monitors</b></div>
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<b>Screen 1: Start Screen with Charms Bar and Tiles</b></div>
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<b> Screen 2: Windows 8 Desktop with Task Bar and Icons</b></div>
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Windows 8
introduces a touchscreen graphic user interface, but what if you
don't have a touchscreen? </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Do you need a touchscreen to use Windows 8? No you do not. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">Does Windows 8 work with a mouse? Yes it does.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">It's </span><u style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">very easy</u><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"> to use Windows 8 with a mouse, and it works great. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But...<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It can be frustrating for the first time user. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Don't Panic!</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here are six easy tips that will get you going on
Windows 8 in no time.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 22.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1 Tiles and
the Start Screen<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Windows 8
stuff: We can think of Windows 8
tiles as similar to the traditional desktop icons that we know in Windows 7. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tiles work a lot like the icons from the Windows 7 (or earlier) desktop.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tiles are a little different, though. Instead of having separated icons on the
background of the desktop, in Windows 8 you get a contiguous tiling of a region,
or regions of the screen. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The setup of tiles on the Start Screen is a bit like an
atlas of applications consisting of tiles grouped into continents.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The tiles on
the Windows 8 Start Screen can be moved around with the mouse and dropped into
a new location to provide convenient groupings. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Try it. Mouse cursor over a tile and hold down the left mouse button, then move the tile around to where you want. It works great with the mouse. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To open an
application, left click a tile, and the application program associated with the
tile opens. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The array of
tiles slide "as a whole" when you move the mouse cursor to the right or left edge of the screen. No need to click or hold down a mouse button. Just move the
cursor to the left or right edge of the screen. It's like horizontal "scrolling" of
your collection of tiles on the Start Screen. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you right
click a tile you can manage the tile and do other stuff. Try it, and see how it works.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2 Close an Open Application<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you
haven't used Windows 8 before, it's not always obvious how to close an open
application.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you have
an open application on the screen, you
can close the application like this: Slide
the mouse cursor to the top of the screen until a "hand" icon
appears. Then, hold down the left mouse button, and move the hand down to the
bottom of the screen. Then "drop" the hand (release the left mouse
button.) This causes the application to close with a cool looking animated
shrinking effect. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You can
re-open the application from its tile. For example, if you close a Word document
with "the hand," clicking the Word tile will reopen Word and open that same
document again. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Of course,
the traditional menus within the Microsoft Word application work with the
mouse as always.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3 How Navigate
to Windows Desktop, Control Panel, Search, Settings, Devices, etc. with a mouse<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">From the Windows 8 Start Screen it's easy to get to the familiar Windows Desktop. Slide the mouse cursor over to the lower left corner of the screen and a small image of the desktop appears. Click on this image and the Windows Desktop is displayed. It looks like the traditional Windows 7 desktop and works the same way. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">Return to the Start Screen from the Desktop using "the hand." Just slide the mouse cursor to the top edge of the screen and the hand appears. Then hold down the left mouse button and swipe downward. This causes the Desktop to close and the display reverts to the Start Screen.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To reach the
control panel and other features we used in Windows 7, you need the "charms
bar" in Windows 8. </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The charms bar is a vertical task bar at the right edge
of the screen. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To reveal
the charms bar, you first slide the mouse cursor to the upper right corner (or
lower right corner) of screen. No mouse click needed. </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Doing this
causes a vertical task bar to appear on the right side of the screen. </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This vertical task bar is called the Windows 8 charms bar. </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the charms bar, you can
then mouse-over five icons to access useful stuff. The charms bar icons are: Start Screen, Settings, Search, Share, and Devices. The names are self explanatory.</span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mouse click on any of these charms bar options
to do stuff. Some examples given below.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4 How to
Open Task Manager<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you want
the Windows Task Manager, first go to the charms bar (aka right vertical menu bar) as
described above ... move the mouse cursor to the upper right corner of the screen, then
when the charms bar reveals itself, select
>search, and type in "task manager." </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Task Manager App tile will appear on the screen to the left. Just left click
the tile to start up Task Manager. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5 Windows 8
Task Manager<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Windows
8 Task Manager screen has a format that's different from Windows 7. In Windows 8 Task Manager, there is one large data graph displayed along with a collection of menus. </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Task Manager has seven tabs: Processes, Performance,
App History, Startup, Users, Details, and Services. The menu titles are similar to what we had in past versions of Windows. </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, Task Manager contains a task-bar with drop-down menus for Files, Options, View.</span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, to view options for the Task
Manager display, just right click on the graph itself. This brings up a display options menu. </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For example, you can
display usage data from all four cores of your quad-core CPU, or display other
graphs according to the display options menu.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 22.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">6 Windows
Control Panel and System Info<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you want
the Windows Control Panel, go to the charms bar and select >"search" then type in "Control Panel," this will bring up the Control Panel tile. Click the tile to bring-up the Control Panel itself. The Windows 8 Control Panel is similar to the traditional Control Panel we used in Windows 7.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, within Control Panel you can select "System and Security," which gives something like the old
"system info" application we used in Windows 7.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 24px;">6.1 </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 24px;">Where are the File Folders?</span></span></b></span></div>
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 24px;"><b>In Windows 8, Files are accessed using the File Explorer App</b>. </span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">Once you open File Explorer, you will know what to do. Its setup is similar to that of Windows 7.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">So we need to open the File Explorer App in Windows 8 to find our files. That can be accomplished by two methods.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><b>Method 1:</b> Go to the charms bar and click search. Then type "File" in the search text field. This will cause the File Explorer App Tile to appear on the left side of the screen. Click on File Explorer Tile and your file system page will open. This page will be familiar to Windows 7 users. Just look for your files as usual from there.</span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><b>Method 2:</b> From the Start Screen click the "Desktop" Tile. This will bring up the Windows 8 desktop. It looks like the Windows 7 desktop except the "Start" button is missing. (However,</span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"> the charms bar works from the desktop, which is just as good or better than a Windows 7 Start button.) Ok...back to the narrative...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">In Windows 8 desktop, there is a task bar at the bottom of the screen. File Explorer is represented by a "manila file folder" icon on the task bar. Click the file folder icon and File Explorer will open. Just look for your files as usual from there. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">If you have the desktop open, you can close the desktop, and go back to the Start Screen. This can be done using the "Hand" method described above under How to Close an Open Application. Just slide the mouse cursor to the top of the screen to get the "Hand."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">OK!</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's about
all you need to get going using Windows 8 with a mouse.</span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Comments, questions, suggestions welcome, as always.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And another thing...</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>How to Shutdown Windows 8 from the Start Screen</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Go to the charms bar select >settings then click the "power" icon.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">This pops up an options list including sleep, shutdown, and restart.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 24px;"><b>How to save a full screen shot in Windows 8</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">From the keyboard type: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">Windows Key + Print Screen </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">This command saves a picture file of everything showing on your monitor (or monitors.) </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;">The picture file in bmp format is saved to your pictures library file folder on the Windows 8 desktop.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 21px; line-height: 24px;"><br /></span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-66450900725504246162012-10-13T10:51:00.002-07:002012-10-15T13:42:13.467-07:00Google YouTube Comes up with Worst Idea of the 21st CenturyGoogle YouTube pushes content creators to change their YouTube Channel Name to their own name, first and last to "reduce spam." Is this a bad idea? Just received this thoughtful letter. Happy to share it here. - Mathview<br />
<br />
<b>Dear Synthetic Information,</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>So, the boys at Google and YouTube want us to change our existing channel name to our personal name. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Really? </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Why not apply this concept to their own websites?</b><br />
<br />
<b>Should YouTube change its name to</b> <span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;">The Serge Brin Channel</span>,<br />
<br />
<b>and Google to </b><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;">Larry & Serge's Special Web Site</span>,<br />
<br />
<b>or to AOL? </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Or, even better, combine both sites into</b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">GooTube</span> </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;">TM</span><br />
<br />
<b>Why not? </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Maybe, because it's the Dumbest Idea of the 21st Century. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>There's a relevant communication concept known as "Name Recognition."</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>It works for all levels of content creators. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Clue-up YouTube.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Sincerely yours,</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>The Dalai Lama, Himself </b>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-4464507096114076032012-08-15T20:17:00.000-07:002013-04-15T19:49:58.207-07:00Secrets for a Successful Upgrade: Windows XP 32bit to Windows 7 64bit<div style="text-align: right;">
<b>DRAFT POST Section 2.0</b></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><b><span style="color: #660000; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">How to Upgrade from Windows XP to Windows 7 Without
Too Much Aggravation. <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><b><span style="color: #660000; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Helpful Tips, Tricks, Secrets, and Frustrating Pitfalls
They Don’t Tell You About.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<b><span style="color: #134f5c;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here we describe the procedure and a timeline for the upgrade from Windows XP 32bit to Windows 7 64bit. This particular upgrade has a reputation for being tricky, frustrating, and difficult for the home user to do. We will highlight information and tricks they don’t tell you about.</span> </span></b></div>
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<b id="internal-source-marker_0.41511559067294"><span style="font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">We were able to upgrade from Windows XP 32bit to Windows 7 64bit in <u><span style="color: #134f5c;">7 hours 20minutes elapsed time</span></u>, and it works perfectly.</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Update August 26: This week we successfully upgraded the RAM in our old PC. The old system had XP 32 bit OS and 2GB as 2x1GB DIMMS. So we removed the old RAM and replaced it with </span></b><b><span style="font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">4GB using 2 x2GB DDR2 DIMMs from Newegg. Our install of Win7 64 works great and much faster on HD H.264 video editing and rendering than it did under Win XP 32 /2GB. With this result, I feel our work in upgrading to WIN 7 64 and 4GB RAM was worth the time and effort.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">BTW the CPU is an AMD Athlon 64bit Dualcore 2.9GHz clock speed. Oldie but goody.</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">... now back to the narrative....</span></b></div>
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<b id="internal-source-marker_0.41511559067294"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">BACKGROUND: </span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Besides referenced sources, we are relying on a set of hand written notes we made during our own, first time experience with the XP to WIN 7 64 upgrade. Provides the POV of the home user. </b></span><b style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Our notes may contain some inaccuracies and omissions, but I think we have a reasonably accurate story here.</b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Step 1: Confirm that your XP computer is ready to run Windows 7 (Takes 15-30 minutes)</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In this step Microsoft Upgrade Advisor is downloaded and used to determine if your XP computer can handle Windows 7, and the essential Microsoft Tutorial: Upgrading from Windows XP to Windows 7 is downloaded and printed.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It’s a good idea to complete steps 1A and 1B below, before you purchase Windows 7 install disk.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Step 1A: Windows 7 Upgrade Advisor: Download and run it on the computer you want to upgrade.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">And yes, Microsoft misspells the word Adviser as Advisor throughout their documentation. So we will follow that convention. It's Upgrade Advisor (sic)</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Get Upgrade Advisor at the Microsoft Download Center: </span><br /><a href="http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=20" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=20</span></a><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; font-weight: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">After you download Upgrade Advisor, install it and run Upgrade Advisor.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Upgrade adviser will generate a report telling you if your computer can be upgraded to Windows 7.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If your hardware passes the test, go ahead and start the upgrade process.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If not, add RAM, free up disk space, etc. as recommended, or give up and buy a new PC with Windows 7 pre-installed. </span></b><b><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">To install 64bit Windows 7 you must have a 64bit CPU.</span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Assuming your PC is ready for Windows 7 64bit continue to step 1B.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Step 1B: Print out Microsoft Tutorial: Upgrading from Windows XP to Windows 7</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> This necessary tutorial is available for viewing and download here: </span><br /><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span><br /><a href="http://windows.microsoft.com/en-ie/windows7/help/upgrading-from-windows-xp-to-windows-7" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://windows.microsoft.com/en-ie/windows7/help/upgrading-from-windows-xp-to-windows-7</span></a><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; font-weight: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This Microsoft site offers the option to download a pdf or xps document version of this tutorial. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">We recommend you download the pdf and print it. The printed document is 17 pages long. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">You will need to refer to the Tutorial step-by-step procedure during the upgrade process. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Be aware that your computer will not be available for use during most of the Upgrade process.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So print it out and read through it before you do anything further. The tutorial offers further advice about the consequences of upgrading Windows XP to Windows 7. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This completes Step 1</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">After completing 1A and 1B, you can decide if you still want to attempt to upgrade from XP to WIN 7. If not, have a nice day. If you want to go for it, then you need to go ahead and purchase the Microsoft Windows 7 upgrade edition package. I got my copy for $109 at Staples.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Step 2: Prepare your computer’s hard drive and OS for installation of Windows 7. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(This step took 5 hours in my case)</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Step 2A: It is best to make sure your installed version of XP is fully up to date with the latest Microsoft updates and Service Pack 2 or better. Do this now.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Step 2B: Download Windows Easy Transfer utility for windows XP 32bit or 64bit depending on which version of XP you are currently running. It’s a free download from Microsoft.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></b><br />
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<b id="internal-source-marker_0.41511559067294"><b id="internal-source-marker_0.41511559067294"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">CAUTION</span></b></b></div>
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<b id="internal-source-marker_0.41511559067294"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b id="internal-source-marker_0.41511559067294"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Calibri; vertical-align: baseline;">YOU MUST SAVE Easy Transfer to your EXTERNAL HDD</span></b></span></b></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If you mistakenly run Easy Transfer from your boot (drive C:) the Windows 7 installer will erase the file you created. We don’t want that.</span><br /><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">You can download Windows Easy Transfer utility for XP for free at:</span><br /><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span><br /><a href="http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows7/products/features/windows-easy-transfer" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows7/products/features/windows-easy-transfer</span></a><br /><a href="http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows7/products/features/windows-easy-transfer" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></a><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Easy File Transfer step proceeds as described in the MS Tutorial pages 5 to 8. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In this step, you will transfer your C drive contents to an external hard disk.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The upgrade from XP to WIN 7 requires a “clean install.” This has implications.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The files on drive C will need to be transferred to the external HHD (call it drive J) before you can install Windows 7.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">After you complete the upgrade to Windows 7 64bit you will need to re-install your application programs like Office, Photoshop, ...</span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Most XP 32bit applications will run fine under Windows 7.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I used Windows Easy Transfer utility and external HDD (drive J) connected via USB to transfer 100GB of files from internal drive C to external drive J. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Easy Transfer is automated. You can set it and forget it. </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Easy Transfer displays a progress bar and time to completion estimate.</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="color: #134f5c; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This transfer took 5 hours to completion, in my case.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">When Easy Transfer is complete it will convert the transferred data into one big file having file type MIG. In my case, Easy Transfer created a single 95.6 GB mig file on my external drive J.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="color: #134f5c; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This completes Step 2</span></b>
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Aside comment: This section is from the point of view of a first time user going through the upgrade in real time. So, it's "I, we, you" from here on.</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In this step, we will install the Windows 7 64bit operating system on a Windows XP 32bit computer that has the capability needed to run from Windows 7 64bit. </span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">We will run into some problems that are not covered in the Microsoft Tutorial. </span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This installation is called a custom install. Before beginning custom install you may want to run Microsoft MRT. First disconnect your external are drive. Then run the MRT. I used the Quick Scan option and then reconnected the external HDD.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; font-weight: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In custom install, you can reformat the internal HDD, but reformatting is not necessary. If you have a recovery partition in a D drive, it is a good idea to keep the recovery partition. We recommend that you do not reformat the internal hard drive.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Now we can actually insert the Windows 7 64bit disk into the optical drive and restart the computer. Should be easy from here on, right? Wrong. This step is tricky and partially undocumented... </span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Resuming narrative: Then during restart, press any key when prompted, and follow the instructions. On the install Windows page, enter language and other preferences. Then click next. </span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If this step is successful, then go ahead and restart the computer. </span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This is where things get tricky....</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Be ready to quickly press the escape key. This is done to bring up the boot options menu. </span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The installer only gives you about one second to hit the escape key! </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If you miss it, the computer will boot XP, and not install Windows 7. </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(It may be that pressing any key will work here, but in any case, you have to be very fast.)</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">You may have to try it a few times to get to the boot options menu.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">During my install, the boot options menu offered two choices. Neither worked. However...</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>I went ahead and restarted the again computer, and again pressed "any key" during the one second window of opportunity. This time, the computer began reading the install disk from the optical drive, and a progress bar appeared indicating that windows files were being loaded. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>An excellent sign we are on the right track.</b></span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">After loading completed, the Windows 7 splash screen appeared. Excellent news, but there's more to do.</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>At some point a preferences menu came up. Notes are incomplete here, but I was able to select preferences and then the option "Install Now" appeared. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b> Then I was asked: "Do you want to install Windows 7?" And a choice of locations was offered. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>I picked a big 256GB partition named drive C. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>You need something like 22GB of total HDD space to install Windows 7 64bit. Make sure your partition has plenty of extra free space available.</b></span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">After I picked drive C from the menu items, installing began. </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The install screen shows a progress bar, and takes about five or ten minutes to complete installation.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">When "installing updates" finishes, the computer will automatically restart. </span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; font-weight: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><span style="color: red;">DO NOT PRESS KEYS DURING THIS RESTART! It will screw things up if you do.</span></b></span></div>
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">During this restart, you will see some messages: "Setup is updating registry settings." Then "completing installation." During "completing installation" a big green progress bar appears. </span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In my case, the full install step took about 30 minutes.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>After installation of Windows 7 is complete, you are asked to choose a username, and name for the computer. Just type in what you want. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>After this step is complete, you are asked to enter the Product Key code. It's on a sheet of paper in the box that contained your Windows 7 disks. After the Product Key is accepted, you can set the time and date. Windows then "finalizes settings." After a few more minutes, the Windows 7 Desktop appears on the monitor screen. Now you are home free!</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There was an automatic step in here someplace called "cleaning previous windows installation." This took about 15 minutes in my installation.</span></b>
</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Next it's good idea to connect your computer to the network. I did it via an Ethernet cable through a router, which worked fine under the new OS. After the network is detected, you will have the option to set up a home network. Do that if you want. After that...</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Celebrate! You have completed installation of Windows 7 64bit on your computer. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">You can connect your printer, and browse for 64bit Windows 7 drivers. </span></b><b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> You will need to update drivers to 64bit in many applications and devices. Many devices are 64bit enabled and will work fine.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Congratulations! Windows 7 64bit is up and running and you can print stuff out. </b></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: #990000;">The total elapsed time for this install, including the file transfer step, was 7 hours and 20 minutes.</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Windows 7 comes with a good collection of accessories and applications like WordPad, and others. </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It's a good idea to create a Windows 7 recovery disk set. Instruction for that come with the installation disk set. </span>
</b><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b> I've been using this installation of Windows 7 64 bit for a few days now, and it works great with no problems.</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Aside comment: << </b></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Besides referenced sources, we are relying on a set of notes we made during our own, first time experience with the XP to WIN 7 64 upgrade. The intention is to tell the story from the POV of the home user. One concern is that o</b></span><b style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">ur hand written notes may contain some inaccuracies and omissions.>></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 15px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>If you spot anything unclear or inaccurate please comment. Of course, all are welcome to share experiences in the comments section. ...Looking forward to hearing from you...</b>
</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-36086026965160052752012-04-15T11:25:00.000-07:002013-04-21T01:23:11.371-07:00Blowing the Whistle on Bad Science at NASA<br />
<b><span style="color: #cc0000;">Experienced Scientists and Engineers Recognize the Classic Signs of Bad Science Coming from Human Caused Global Warming Believers</span></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;">SEVEN CLASSIC SIGNS OF BAD SCIENCE</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;">1- Extravagant claims of the accuracy and correctness of IPCC climate models</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;">2- Predictions of extraordinary events which do not occur when predicted</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;">3-Warnings of dire consequences if claims of advocates are not believed</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;">4-Politicization of the scientific dialog</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;">5-Refusal to answer criticism or engage in scientific discussion with critics</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;">6-Advocates claim their theory is manifestly true and free of all possible error</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #0b5394;">7-Use of figurehead advocates having no scientific standing or relevant resume</span></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>We observe that experienced scientists can rather easily detect the signs of bias and improper scientific conduct by advocates who put their beliefs above objective scientific examination. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Last month a group of highly respected and knowledgeable former NASA scientists and engineers wrote the following letter that essentially "blows the whistle" on bad science now being practiced by </b><b>NASA and Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS).</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>The scientists who wrote this extraordinary letter are clearly angered and saddened that the great scientific reputation of NASA (which they had worked to build throughout their careers) has been taken down by a collection of politically motivated advocates who have abandoned objective scientific practice and values. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>The following is the full text* and list of signatories of an extraordinary letter from former NASA scientists and engineers expressing their concerns about bad science at NASA. The letter is addressed to the current NASA "Head Honcho" Administrator Charles Bolden.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>The signers of this letter are highly qualified and accomplished men and women of substantial background and record of achievement in science and engineering. As I read through this list, I was truly moved by the history of excellence represented by each of these people. I want to personally thank each of them for their lifetime of contribution to NASA, and their willingness and courage to "step up to the plate" one again. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Thank you.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
March 28, 2012<br />
The Honorable Charles Bolden, Jr.<br />
NASA Administrator<br />
NASA Headquarters<br />
Washington, D.C. 20546-0001<br />
<br />
Dear Charlie,<br />
<br />
We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.<br />
<br />
The unbridled advocacy of CO2 being the major cause of climate change is unbecoming of NASA’s history of making an objective assessment of all available scientific data prior to making decisions or public statements.<br />
<br />
As former NASA employees, we feel that NASA’s advocacy of an extreme position, prior to a thorough study of the possible overwhelming impact of natural climate drivers is inappropriate. We request that NASA refrain from including unproven and unsupported remarks in its future releases and websites on this subject. At risk is damage to the exemplary reputation of NASA, NASA’s current or former scientists and employees, and even the reputation of science itself.<br />
<br />
For additional information regarding the science behind our concern, we recommend that you contact Harrison Schmitt or Walter Cunningham, or others they can recommend to you.<br />
<br />
Thank you for considering this request.<br />
<br />
Sincerely,<br />
<br />
(Attached signatures)<br />
CC: Mr. John Grunsfeld, Associate Administrator for Science<br />
CC: Ass Mr. Chris Scolese, Director, Goddard Space Flight Center<br />
Ref: <em>Letter to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, dated 3-26-12, regarding a request for NASA to refrain from making unsubstantiated claims that human produced CO2 is having a catastrophic impact on climate change.</em><br />
Jack Barneburg, Jack – JSC, Space Shuttle Structures, Engineering Directorate, 34 years<br />
Larry Bell – JSC, Mgr. Crew Systems Div., Engineering Directorate, 32 years<br />
Dr. Donald Bogard – JSC, Principal Investigator, Science Directorate, 41 years<br />
Jerry C. Bostick – JSC, Principal Investigator, Science Directorate, 23 years<br />
Dr. Phillip K. Chapman – JSC, Scientist – astronaut, 5 years<br />
Michael F. Collins, JSC, Chief, Flight Design and Dynamics Division, MOD, 41 years<br />
Dr. Kenneth Cox – JSC, Chief Flight Dynamics Div., Engr. Directorate, 40 years<br />
Walter Cunningham – JSC, Astronaut, Apollo 7, 8 years<br />
Dr. Donald M. Curry – JSC, Mgr. Shuttle Leading Edge, Thermal Protection Sys., Engr. Dir., 44 years<br />
Leroy Day – Hdq. Deputy Director, Space Shuttle Program, 19 years<br />
Dr. Henry P. Decell, Jr. – JSC, Chief, Theory & Analysis Office, 5 years<br />
Charles F. Deiterich – JSC, Mgr., Flight Operations Integration, MOD, 30 years<br />
Dr. Harold Doiron – JSC, Chairman, Shuttle Pogo Prevention Panel, 16 years<br />
Charles Duke – JSC, Astronaut, Apollo 16, 10 years<br />
Anita Gale<br />
Grace Germany – JSC, Program Analyst, 35 years<br />
Ed Gibson – JSC, Astronaut Skylab 4, 14 years<br />
Richard Gordon – JSC, Astronaut, Gemini Xi, Apollo 12, 9 years<br />
Gerald C. Griffin – JSC, Apollo Flight Director, and Director of Johnson Space Center, 22 years<br />
Thomas M. Grubbs – JSC, Chief, Aircraft Maintenance and Engineering Branch, 31 years<br />
Thomas J. Harmon<br />
David W. Heath – JSC, Reentry Specialist, MOD, 30 years<br />
Miguel A. Hernandez, Jr. – JSC, Flight crew training and operations, 3 years<br />
James R. Roundtree – JSC Branch Chief, 26 years<br />
Enoch Jones – JSC, Mgr. SE&I, Shuttle Program Office, 26 years<br />
Dr. Joseph Kerwin – JSC, Astronaut, Skylab 2, Director of Space and Life Sciences, 22 years<br />
Jack Knight – JSC, Chief, Advanced Operations and Development Division, MOD, 40 years<br />
Dr. Christopher C. Kraft – JSC, Apollo Flight Director and Director of Johnson Space Center, 24 years<br />
Paul C. Kramer – JSC, Ass.t for Planning Aeroscience and Flight Mechanics Div., Egr. Dir., 34 years<br />
Alex (Skip) Larsen<br />
Dr. Lubert Leger – JSC, Ass’t. Chief Materials Division, Engr. Directorate, 30 years<br />
Dr. Humbolt C. Mandell – JSC, Mgr. Shuttle Program Control and Advance Programs, 40 years<br />
Donald K. McCutchen – JSC, Project Engineer – Space Shuttle and ISS Program Offices, 33 years<br />
Thomas L. (Tom) Moser – Hdq. Dep. Assoc. Admin. & Director, Space Station Program, 28 years Dr. George Mueller – Hdq., Assoc. Adm., Office of Space Flight, 6 years<br />
Tom Ohesorge<br />
James Peacock – JSC, Apollo and Shuttle Program Office, 21 years<br />
Richard McFarland – JSC, Mgr. Motion Simulators, 28 years<br />
Joseph E. Rogers – JSC, Chief, Structures and Dynamics Branch, Engr. Directorate,40 years<br />
Bernard J. Rosenbaum – JSC, Chief Engineer, Propulsion and Power Division, Engr. Dir., 48 years<br />
Dr. Harrison (Jack) Schmitt – JSC, Astronaut Apollo 17, 10 years<br />
Gerard C. Shows – JSC, Asst. Manager, Quality Assurance, 30 years<br />
Kenneth Suit – JSC, Ass’t Mgr., Systems Integration, Space Shuttle, 37 years<br />
Robert F. Thompson – JSC, Program Manager, Space Shuttle, 44 years/s/ Frank Van Renesselaer – Hdq., Mgr. Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters, 15 years<br />
<br />
Dr. James Visentine – JSC Materials Branch, Engineering Directorate, 30 years<br />
Manfred (Dutch) von Ehrenfried – JSC, Flight Controller; Mercury, Gemini & Apollo, MOD, 10 years<br />
George Weisskopf – JSC, Avionics Systems Division, Engineering Dir., 40 years<br />
Al Worden – JSC, Astronaut, Apollo 15, 9 years<br />
Thomas (Tom) Wysmuller – JSC, Meteorologist, 5 years<br />
<br />
*Posted by<strong> Free Republic</strong><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-29067183151738771982012-03-25T12:30:00.002-07:002014-02-12T18:32:50.253-08:00A Brief Guide for New Writers: How to Publish Mathematical and Scientific Papers<br />
<div align="RIGHT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Draft
Version 1.5 June 18, 2012</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Updated February 16, 2013</b></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Guide
for New Writers: How to Publish Mathematical and Scientific Papers</b></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">By
Mathview</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Words of Wisdom: </b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>How to win the Nobel Prize... Or at least, get some recognition for your scientific accomplishments.</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">Getting your paper published does not mean that you will gain recognition for your scientific accomplishment. It is necessary to publish your work, but not sufficient. If you have something important to share, you must publicize your work in other ways. Usually that means traveling and giving talks, seminars, invited lectures, departmental seminars, interdepartmental seminars, presentations at scientific meetings, and the like. Ivory tower seclusion is a dead end, unless you are counting on being discovered posthumous. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">If you want to win the Nobel prize in your field, I would suggest an organized campaign aimed at getting powerful senior members of your chosen scientific community to think of you as a Nobel candidate. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">Just doing the science is not enough, you must promote your work and explain its importance, significance, impact, and generally tell the world why your stuff is great. Of course, it helps a lot if it's really, objectively, truly great stuff.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">Step zero is to do the work. Step one is to get it published. So, here's how that goes. </span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Part
1 Traditional Refereed Archival Academic Journal Publication</b></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>First
Choose a Journal for Your Paper</b></span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">If
you have completed a potentially interesting calculation, solved a
theoretical problem, or done a significant experiment, you may want
to publish a paper on your work. The first step is to identify an
appropriate journal that will reach your intended audience. If this
will be your first publication, you will need to do some research on appropriate journals at
your local university library or find relevant journal archives online. Openly accessible online journal archives are often maintained by national
scientific societies like the American Physical Society (APS) or the
American Mathematical Society (AMS). Some professional societies require membership in order to obtain access to their online journal archives.</span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There
are tons of scientific journals. Some are highly selective, and only
accept papers deemed sufficiently important, and of general interest
to all professionals in the field. Such publications reach larger
audiences of subscribers. Publication in such journals is usually
considered more prestigious. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Examples
of such prestigious publications include journals like Nature, published by Nature Publishing; Physical Review Letters, published weekly by the American
Physical Society; The American Mathematical Monthly, published by the
Mathematical Association of America; and the Journal of the American
Mathematical Society, published by AMS to mention a few. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Other
journals are more specialized and contain papers of interest to a
sub-field of specialists. Examples include The Journal of
Mathematical Physics published by the American Institute of Physics,
and Physical Review D which contains papers of interest to specialists in
high energy physics. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Second
tier journals such as those published by regional scientific
societies have a much smaller readership. Such journals are typically
carried by local university libraries. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>University
Library Systems</b></span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Libraries
of most Ph.D. granting universities typically maintain subscriptions
to all important journals. If you have a “library card” at a
university library you may be able to access these archival
publications in the library or online. You benefit without cost from the library's paid
journal subscriptions. University libraries are an essential resource
for perspective authors, and many have a policy that allows access by non-students and non-faculty. For example, any California resident with a valid UC library card can access the University of California library system. This includes
collections at UC San Diego, UCLA, and UC Berkeley and the other UC
system institutions. Employees of national laboratories like Lawrence
Livermore, and Los Alamos National Laboratories can access the
collection of the UC Library System.</span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Subscriptions and Page
Charges</b></span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Most
archival journals offer subscriptions at special rates to members of
scientific societies. For example, members of the American
Mathematical Society or the American Physical Society can purchase
subscriptions at affordable rates. Libraries pay much higher
subscription fees. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Most refereed scientific journals require the
author(s) to pay page charges, a fee per journal page published. If
you are an academic employee of a university or laboratory, the
institution will usually pick up the page charges. If you are
publishing as an individual, most journals offer a discount rate or
may waive page charges entirely.</span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>The
Referee Process</b></span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Most
academic journals require all papers be reviewed and critiqued by an
anonymous panel of referees, typically three in number. This is sometimes called the <i>peer review process</i>. We prefer the pugilistic <i>referee process</i>. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The journal editor makes the decision to accept, or request revisions by the author(s), or reject the paper. This decision is based on the written referee reports, and the editor's own judgment and discretion. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Usually, the author is provided with copies of
the referee reports when they become available. The names and institutions of the referees are confidential and not shared with the author(s). The author usually has the opportunity to respond
to referee reports and argue for acceptance, or submit revisions to
the draft paper that aim to resolve the referee's objections. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The journal
editor has the ultimate authority to accept or reject your paper. The
editor in some cases will suggest an alternate appropriate journal to
the author, instead of formally rejecting the paper. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> The author should endeavor to write a paper that passes
through the referee process with flying colors and speeds into print.
The referee process takes time. Typically several weeks, or even
months to complete the process.</span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Each
journal will publish a guide to perspective authors.</b> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">These guides are
usually published in specific issues of the journal itself. They will specify the format
requirements and other rules for authors. You must obey the rules,
or your paper will be immediately rejected. Of course, minor
formatting mistakes can be corrected, but usually the editorial staff
will ask the author to make the required format changes before the
paper is submitted to the referees. Format mistakes can result in delays or rejection of your paper. Learn and follow the rules!</span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>How
to Write Your Paper. This is Important!</b></span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">After
you pick a journal that you want to “go for,” you will need to
carefully read several articles from that journal. This reading is
not so much for content, rather it is to learn, absorb, and get the hang of the elements of writing and
composition style standard for the journal. Examine published papers for writing style. Then pick some
papers that you particularly like, and want to emulate. Then try to
write like your favorite authors. </span></span>
</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>A
few helpful hints for new authors. </b></span></span>
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Learn
how sentences are formulated. Observe how paragraphs and sections are
organized. Be concise rather than wordy. Observe the
level of detail, the quality of references, and their format.
There is no need to try to impress the referees with flowery prose.
Showing off can backfire and make you look bad.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Graphic images </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">in scientific publications</span><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"> </span><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">such as data plots, images, and diagrams are called Figures. Figures are numbered sequentially, and all Figures must have text captions in addition to any graphic text contained in the Figure itself. When a Figure is referenced in the text, an abbreviation like "Fig. 3" is commonly used. Not Figure 3. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">Main equations set between lines of text are usually, but not always, required to have an equation number, like "Eq. 3," adjacent to the equation. Referees and readers often need such numbers for reference. Text lines may have short formulas or symbols embedded. These are not numbered. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">The format for mathematical equations and symbols differs among scientific Journals. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">Journals will also specify a format for references or citations in your paper. Examine published articles in your target journal to see the format rules in action. Be sure to know and adhere to </span><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">the format rules specific to your journal of choice. Follow the rules to avoid delays or rejection.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Take care to explain novel data analysis methods, specialized equipment or other techniques that
may not be widely known. Or, if they are known and standard techniques, you
may simply refer to a classic paper or book. For example, “Here we
use the method of xyz [reference] to solve problem pdq.” </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"><b> Well written papers will impress the referees and attract readers.</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"> </span><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">The writer should strive to accomplish all of the following writing goals: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">1- Clearly state the main results in a well crafted title and abstract</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">2- Succinctly describe the methods used </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">3- Place the result in wider context</span><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">4- Explain the significance, and novelty of main results</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">5- If you claim an original, exciting, and new result or finding, be specific</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: medium;">5- Don't forget to acknowledge those who contributed to, or supported the work </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Part
2 Online Publication</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Grigory
Perelman published his proof of the Poincare conjecture as a series
of preprints using online publication at the Cornell University
library website called arXiv. Online publishing at arXiv is becoming
very popular. Here is a link to the arXiv Primer
</span></span><a href="http://arxiv.org/help/primer">http://arxiv.org/help/primer</a>.
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> The Cornell
University Library maintains arXiv and arXiv publications are openly
accessible to all. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> The referee process at arXiv is a kind of “crowd
sourcing” activity called moderation. Your arXiv paper may receive useful
comments from all over. The online publication system requires papers
be written using the LaTex or Tex scientific document system. Open
source and commercial versions of LaTex and associated document
creation software are available. Check the arXiv Primer for more
information on document format requirements at arXiv.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Statement
by arXiv...</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
“<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">arXiv
is NOT a repository for otherwise unpublishable material, NOR is it a
refereed publication venue.” </span></span>
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">You
must register with arXiv (it's free) to access arXiv content and
registration is required if you want to submit a paper for
publication in one of their online journals. </span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Submitting
to arXiv (from the Primer)</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">arXiv
accepts submissions of scholarly articles in a variety of formats
from registered, endorsed users. The submission process can begin any
time after the user has successfully registered. The submission process has several
stages:</span></span></span></div>
<ul>
<li><div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">metadata
(separate title, author, abstract, etc.) preparation and LaTex, Tex, etc. file
verification</span></span></span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">pending
submission status</span></span></span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">announced
submission</span></span></span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">additions
that can be made without submitting a replacement document</span></span></span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">revision
preparation</span></span></span></div>
</li>
<li>
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">etc.</span></span></span><br />
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">arXiv
submissions are meant to be available </span></span></span><em><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>in
perpetuity</b></span></span></span></span></em><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">.
Thus, arXiv has high technical standards for the files that are
submitted. The submission process begins with the preparation of
</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="http://arxiv.org/help/prep">valid
metadata</a> </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">for
the paper and continues through a verification process whereby the
files uploaded are checked for certain problems. </span></span></span>
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Valid
upload formats for the primary text file include </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(La)TeX</b></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">,
</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>PostScript</b></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">,
</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>PDF</b></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">,
and </span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>HTML</b></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">.</span></span></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div align="JUSTIFY">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>If
you want to publish your paper, get feedback from interested readers, and have your paper listed and available to all, then arXiv
publication may be a great way to go. </b></span></span></span>
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY">
<br />
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY">
<br />
<b style="font-family: "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: large;">There
is a downside to publication via arXiv.</b></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Many
universities do not consider arXiv publications to be valid
academic publications. You might not get “academic professional credit”
for an arXiv paper.</span></span></span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY">
<br />
<br /></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>If
you publish on arXiv, your paper will probably not be eligible for
publication in most archival refereed journals.</b></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Most
archival refereed journals will not accept papers that have been
uploaded to arXiv. This may change in the future. </span></span></span>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Some
traditional journals are beginning to use arXiv. The idea is that a
“pre-print” version of an accepted journal publication is
permitted and even encouraged.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">For
example, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics “encourages
members to post their articles in a preprint format on arXiv.”</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And...
“IMS wishes to demonstrate by example, that high quality journals
supported by the academic community can provide adequate revenue to
their publishers even if all of their content is placed on open
access digital repository such as arXiv.”</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Here
is a link to a blog post outlining the pros and cons of publication
of scientific papers on arXiv. We note that arXiv has no page
charges.</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="http://www.astrobetter.com/to-post-or-not-to-post-publishing-to-the-arxiv-before-acceptance/">http://www.astrobetter.com/to-post-or-not-to-post-publishing-to-the-arxiv-before-acceptance/</a>
Not sure if this link is working at the time of this writing.</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Bitstream Charter', serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>How do archival refereed journals interact with arXiv?</b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;">Some archival journals encourage the use of arXiv to post pre-prints of papers that have been refereed and accepted for publication. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">That is, if you have a paper that has been accepted for publication in a refereed scientific journal you will be given a publication date. The publication date is the date your paper will appear in print as a journal article. Usually there is a delay of weeks to months between the acceptance date and the publication date. It makes sense to post a pre-print of your paper on arXiv so people can see your stuff early. Many journals allow and or encourage this method of publication of pre-prints. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>What about citations of arXiv papers in the references of your paper? </b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">Most scientific journals now accept references to papers published via arXiv. arXiv papers are referenced in the usual way using the arXiv reference code numbers, author list, title, etc. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;">The use of results from arXiv papers may be problematic since arXiv publications are not refereed in the traditional sense. That is, there is some risk that the result you are using may not be as thoroughly vetted as a result found in a traditional refereed journal. This is a matter of judgement. It is the responsibility of the author to be certain the arXiv paper is right before using a result from it. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">Some referees may be skeptical of an arXiv published result. So you may have to provide a solid justification, should it be requested by a referee.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>If you publish a result via arXiv, will you have priority and recognition as the person who gets the credit for discovering the result?</b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">Although there may be some uncertainty about this, generally, if you have a good valid result in an arXiv paper you will be recognized and credited for your work in traditional refereed journals. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">It would be very bad form for someone to scoop a result from arXiv and try to publish it in a journal as their own work. No one wants to be guilty of such a shady practice. For these reasons I believe arXiv is a good way to establish priority for having discovered or developed a new scientific or mathematical result. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">Even if others obtain your result independently, they are duty bound to credit your prior publication. Of course, sometimes authors are simply unaware of your stuff. If that happens, it is up to you to write to the journal and inform them of your prior work. Usually, the journal will publish a note recognizing your stuff if it has merit.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Nature Publishing's Scientific Reports</b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">Scientific Reports (SR) is an online scientific journal recently introduced by Nature Publishing. Unlike arXiv, Scientific Reports is a peer reviewed publication. SR promises review and publication of scientific papers in the physical and medical sciences on a rapid timescale of 30 days. SR does charge a publication fee per article. SR is meant to be an alternative venue for papers that may not qualify for publication in Nature and its associated printed media journals. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: medium;">The SR website is very impressive: </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.nature.com/srep/about/index.html">http://www.nature.com/srep/about/index.html</a> <span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></div>
</div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Recommended resources and references</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Reference 1</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;">How to Publish Your First Paper on Mathematics by S.G. Kranz </span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;">American Mathematical Society</span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">This article provides a short guide to writing and publishing a professional quality paper in an archival mathematical journal. Includes a discussion of publication via arXiv. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;">Download the pdf at this link:</span><br />
<a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ams.org%2Fnotices%2F200711%2Ftx071101507p.pdf&ei=gCNwT6_6D-KoiQL7xPjKBQ&usg=AFQjCNGgLkfybV0HJU6sJ5F_YvKFtT2pwQ">http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ams.org%2Fnotices%2F200711%2Ftx071101507p.pdf&ei=gCNwT6_6D-KoiQL7xPjKBQ&usg=AFQjCNGgLkfybV0HJU6sJ5F_YvKFtT2pwQ</a><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Reference 2</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Wikipedia article about the history of arXiv.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Includes a brief discussion of copyright options available to arXiv authors.</span><br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ArXiv"><span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ArXiv</span></a><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Reference 3</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Journal Citation of arXiv Papers and related information from arXiv FAQ.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://arxiv.org/help/faq/references">http://arxiv.org/help/faq/references</a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Reference 4</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Should I cite a paper posted on arXiv? I have written a paper using a result published on arXiv, however the paper is not refereed. Is that a problem? <br />
<br />
Absolutely you should cite the arXiv paper, some of the most important mathematical papers are now being published via arXiv. But...</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Check out mathoverflow.net discussion:</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://mathoverflow.net/questions/41141/should-i-not-cite-an-arxiv-org-paper">http://mathoverflow.net/questions/41141/should-i-not-cite-an-arxiv-org-paper</a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The Mathoverflow folks provide a great Q and A forum for mathematical researchers.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
But "not for help on your math homework."</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Reference 5</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://mathoverflow.net/faq">http://mathoverflow.net/faq</a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">"MathOverflow's primary goal is for users to ask and answer </span><strong style="background-color: white; border-image: initial; border-width: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">research level math questions</strong><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">, the sorts of questions you come across when you're writing or reading articles or graduate level books."</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;"><b>Reference 6</b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">An excellent description of the peer review process can be found here</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;"> </span><a href="http://www.nature.com/srep/referees/index.html">http://www.nature.com/srep/referees/index.html</a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: white;">This one is for Nature Publishing's Scientific Reports. <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;"> </span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-44121839533503548442012-03-23T08:30:00.002-07:002013-04-20T12:26:35.886-07:00Wildwood Flower on the Classic DulcimerWildwood Flower a Traditional American Song Written in 1860,
one year before the start of the Civil War.
Original title was "I'll Twine 'Mid the Ringlets". The song was written in 1860, with words by Maud Irving and music by Joseph Philbrick Webster (1819–1875).
<br />
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<br />
<span style="background-color: #f6b26b; color: red; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Wildwood Flower Original 1860 Lyrics</span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span>
Oh I Will twine mid the ringlets of my raven black hair<br />
The lilies so pale and the roses so fair<br />
<div>
The mytle so bright with an emerald hue and the pale </div>
<div>
arnatus with eyes of bright blue. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'll dance and I'll sing and my laugh shall be gay* </div>
<div>
I'll cease this wild weeping, drive sorrow away. </div>
<div>
Though my heart is now breaking, he never shall know </div>
<div>
That his name made me tremble and my pale cheeks to glow. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'll think of him, I'll be wildly gay </div>
<div>
I'll charm every heart, and the crowd I will sway. </div>
<div>
I'll live yet to see him regret the dark hour </div>
<div>
When he won then neglected the frail wildwood flower.<br />
<br />
He told he loved me and promised to love </div>
<div>
Through ill and misfortune all others above. </div>
<div>
Another has won him, ah misery to tell </div>
<div>
He left me in silence no word of farewell.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
He taught me to love him, he called me his flower </div>
<div>
That blossomed for him all the brighter each hour </div>
<div>
But I woke from my dreaming, my idol was clay </div>
<div>
My visions of love have all faded away.
<br />
<br />
*There may be a mistake in the first line of the second stanza.<br />
<br />
The "folk song process" allows lyrics to evolve. <br />
After 100 years we have the classic Wildwood Flower <br />
performed by the Carter Family in the mid-20th century.<br />
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<pre><pre style="font-size: 15px;"><span style="background-color: #f6b26b; color: red; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></pre>
<pre style="background-color: white;"><object height="360" width="640"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ewnfWoSQz3o&hl=en_GB&feature=player_embedded&version=3">
</param>
<param name="allowFullScreen" value="true">
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<param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always">
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<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ewnfWoSQz3o&hl=en_GB&feature=player_embedded&version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="360"></embed></object></pre>
<pre style="background-color: white;"></pre>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ref.s
Early Music Radio UK, Wikipedia, Traditional Folk Music Tune Book.
Videos from YouTube</span></pre>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-77404754120124298482012-02-27T21:56:00.000-08:002012-03-02T22:30:00.278-08:00NIKKEI JAPAN REPORT February 27, 2012<span style="color: red; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><b>Japan's Economy Industry Creativity and Industry</b></span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><b>Watch and Learn</b></span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><b>We prefer this to foolish, negative, silly, "entertainment" TV from America.</b></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe src="http://www.ustream.tv/embed/recorded/20752236" width="608" height="368" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: 0px none transparent;"></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-10985194250277253322012-02-26T10:38:00.000-08:002012-02-26T10:38:14.151-08:00The City of Samba Tilt Shift AwesomenessFrom Jarbas Agnelli<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/37157187" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitAllowFullScreen mozallowfullscreen allowFullScreen></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-86906650280735482362012-02-22T03:31:00.000-08:002012-02-22T03:31:11.419-08:00The Art of Design<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="281" mozallowfullscreen="" src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/30069465?portrait=0&color=B70101" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="500"></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-34564417196542494662012-02-09T00:33:00.000-08:002012-02-09T00:35:52.321-08:00Executive Summary of Vimeo streaming video service<span style="color: #e06666; font-size: large;">Executive Summary</span><br />
<br />
<b>It seems Vimeo (anagram of movie) has gained a reputation as the high class alternative to YouTube.</b><br />
<br />
<b>
Not entirely the case, but Vimeo is an impressive service attracting some of the best pure movie making people.</b><br />
<br />
<b>
YouTube retains the advantage of volume. As of 2012 YouTube reports about 4 billion (yes that's billion with a B) video views per day.</b><br />
<br />
<b>
Wikipedia reports as of December 2011, Vimeo attracted 65 million unique visitors per month and more than 8 million registered users. 15% of Vimeo’s traffic comes from mobile users.</b><br />
<br />
<b>
Note that Vimeo offers a basic free service which is great for most of us. Standard Vimeo offers 500MB video upload limit per week and one HD video per week for free.
</b><br />
<br />
<b>Vimeo Plus for $60 per year supports 5GB per week uploads, no banner ads, HD embedding, and some other features. There's also a Vimeo Pro service for high volume usage commercial applications.</b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #fce5cd; color: #990000;"></span></b><br />
<div style="color: #cc0000;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<b><span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: small;">Here are some specifications of the services offered by Vimeo. </span> <br /><br />Since August 2010, all videos are encoded into H.264 for HTML5 support. <br /><br />All videos uploaded before August 2010 were re-encoded. Non-HD videos re-encode at a maximum of 30 frame/s and they also have significantly higher bitrates than other competing video sharing sites. <br /><br />Standard Vimeo users can upload up to 500 MB of videos per week, and up to one HD video per week (additional HD videos uploaded within the same week are encoded to SD).<br /><br />Vimeo-Plus<br />As of July 22nd, 2010, the site offers unlimited HD embeds. As of January 4, 2011, Vimeo Plus users can upload videos that are up to five gigabytes of footage, roughly equivalent to 2.5 hours of HD video. This makes it possible for full length, high-definition feature films to be uploaded to Vimeo by Vimeo Plus users.</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<b style="color: #990000;">Vimeo Awards in New York City</b><br />
<br />
<b style="color: #990000;">Vimeo's first annual Vimeo Awards took place October 8-9, 2010 in New York City, dedicated towards showcasing and awarding creative video content hosted on the site. </b><br />
<br />
<b style="color: #990000;">Festival judges included David Lynch, Morgan Spurlock, Rian Johnson, M.I.A., and Charlie White. The competition received over 6500 entries. Winners were chosen for each category, with the documentary finalist "Last Minutes with Oden" taking home the $25,000 grand prize. Ben Briand's short narrative "Apricot" won the Community Choice Award.</b><br />
<br />
<b style="color: #990000;">The two-day festival included video screenings and workshops from the likes of Philip Bloom, Lawrence Lessig, and DJ Spooky, and an award show hosted by Ze Frank. A 3D projection-mapping displayed on the Vimeo HQ/IAC building concluded the festival.</b><br />
<br />
<br />
Pop world stars who have posted their stuff to Vimeo.<br />
<br />
M.I.A., Kanye West, Tom Delonge, Nine Inch Nails, Moby, Beck, Placebo, Lykke Li, Röyksopp, Devin the Dude, Björk and Britney Spears, who premiered her new music video Radar there. Comedians Kristen Schaal, Reggie Watts, and "Weird Al" Yankovic use Vimeo as well.<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b><b>Founders and Operators of Vimeo</b><br />
<br />
<b>It was founded by Jake Lodwick and Zach Klein in November 2004, who left the company in 2007 and 2008 respectively. </b><br />
<br />
<b>Barry Dillar's IAC (InterActiveCorp) purchased Vimeo in August 2006 as part of its acquisition of Connected Ventures. </b><br />
<br />
<b>Dae Mellencamp is the Chief Executive Officer of Vimeo. In January 2009, Dae Mellencamp joined IAC as General Manager of Vimeo.</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="color: #cc0000; text-align: justify;">
<b>SUMMARY</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="color: #cc0000;"><br />In summary, Vimeo offers the video/movie maker or commercial factor a professional quality streaming video platform that can offer noticably higher quality images than competing services. Such an edge in quality is attractive to those who make use of online streaming video in their businesses. Vimeo has a much smaller audience reach than YouTube. The Vimeo audience is only about one-half percent of YouTube's total audience.</b><span style="color: #cc0000;"> </span></div>
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-15553390992256805382012-02-02T20:43:00.000-08:002012-02-10T09:41:08.803-08:00For all things Mrs. Parker<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Times,'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: x-large;">The Dorothy Parker Society</span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Times,'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Times,'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: large;">"Must sees" for the slavish fanboy or fangirl.</span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: Times,'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Times,'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: large;">A Tour of the Algonquin Hotel and the Round Table Room </span><br />
<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Times,'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: large;">with commentary</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<object height="360" width="640"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/aRqoYuxKfoc&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3">
</param>
<param name="allowFullScreen" value="true">
</param>
<param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always">
</param>
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/aRqoYuxKfoc&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="360"></embed></object>
<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">We can only imagine what Mrs. Parker and her Algonquin round table friends would say about us. </span><br />
<span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">But our imaginations may not be up to the task.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">The
Round Table first met June 1919 for a luncheon to welcome home Aleck
Woollcott, the drama critic for the New York Times, back from World
War 1.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">In
1987 the Algonquin was designated a New York City landmark, however
it is not protected by the Landmarks Preservation Commission. </span>
</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">A
commemorative painting by Natalie Ascencious was unveiled in 2002 on
the occasion of the Alqonquin Hotel's 100<sup>th</sup> anniversary. </span></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #eeeeee;">______________________________________________________</span> </span></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">In
1996 Stuart Silverstein edited “Not Much Fun: The Lost Poems of
Dorothy Parker.” </span></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">His
comments:</span></div>
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">"The
enduring legacy of the group of newspaper writers, magazine editors,
critics, actors and hangers-on is timeless." </span>
</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
</div>
<div style="background-color: #f9cb9c;">
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">"The
first lunch at what later was called the Round Table probably
occurred eighty years ago," Silverstein said in 1999. "Yet
the term "The Algonquin Round Table" still holds
substantial cultural resonance; for example, during the past
television season at least three sitcoms employed it as an ironic
punch line to skewer characters who spoke badly or stupidly. Is there
any other person, or institution, or event from the interwar period
that could possibly be used by a mass-market medium as an implicitly
understood cultural reference? I cannot think of any -- not even
Lindbergh (May 1927) not any more. Perhaps the Stock Market crash."
</span>
</div>
<div style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(249, 203, 156); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span>
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Nxn_GPOIWig/TzNv3wRHS1I/AAAAAAAAAI0/iWmwlLoh5pM/s1600/Dorothy+Parker+Vicious+Circle+01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="428" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Nxn_GPOIWig/TzNv3wRHS1I/AAAAAAAAAI0/iWmwlLoh5pM/s640/Dorothy+Parker+Vicious+Circle+01.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Those
who lunch at the Algonquin round table</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="LEFT" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 204, 153); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">From
the left: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Mrs. Parker, drama critic Vanity Fair </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Robert Benchley,
managing editor of Vanity Fair </span>
</div>
<div align="LEFT" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 204, 153); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"></span></div>
<div align="LEFT" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 204, 153); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Franklin
P. Adams, newspaperman </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Robert E. Sherwood, playwright and screenwriter</span>
</div>
<div align="LEFT" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 204, 153); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"></span></div>
<div align="LEFT" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 204, 153); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Harpo
Marx </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Harold Ross, editor of the New Yorker </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Alex Woollcott, drama
critic for the New York Times </span>
</div>
<div align="LEFT" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 204, 153); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"></span></div>
<div align="LEFT" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 204, 153); margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">Mark
Connelly, newspaperman</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;"> Edna Ferber, novelist </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">George S. Kaufman, Heywood Broun; newspapermen </span>
</div>
<div align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif; font-size: large;">This
image of the <i>Vicious Circle</i> a painting by Natalie Ascencios
from dorothyparker.com.</span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">
This information mostly taken from dorothyparker.com.</div>
<br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-38569726191268755982012-01-30T21:55:00.001-08:002012-01-30T22:37:24.304-08:00NIKKEI JAPAN REPORT January 31 2012 LIVE<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Latest on the Japanese Economy, commerce, trends, and comments from </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>NIKKEI JAPAN REPORT</b></span><br />
<b><span style="color: #990000;">Miss Utsuda Reporting</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #990000;">LIVE</span></b><br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="368" scrolling="no" src="http://www.ustream.tv/embed/9263628" style="border: 0px none transparent;" width="608"></iframe><br />
<a href="http://www.ustream.tv/" style="background: #ffffff; color: black; display: block; font-size: 10px; font-weight: normal; padding: 2px 0px 4px; text-align: center; text-decoration: underline; width: 400px;" target="_blank">Video streaming by Ustream</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-29061076763078722372012-01-29T09:03:00.000-08:002012-01-29T09:17:05.746-08:00California Artist David E. Doherty Gallery Show 2012<span style="color: #b45f06; font-size: x-large;"><b>Welcome to California Artist David E. Doherty</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #b45f06; font-size: x-large;"><b>A collection of paintings titled</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: x-large;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="color: #cc0000;"> </span><span style="color: #660000;"> </span><span style="color: #990000;">"Images of Pacific Ocean Park"</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span><br />
<b><span style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-size: large;">Pacific Ocean Park was an amusement park built on a pier in Santa Monica that became a California cultural phenomenon of the 1950s and 60s.</span><span style="font-size: x-large;"> </span></span></b><br />
<span style="color: #b45f06;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="color: #b45f06; font-size: large;"><b>Images of Pacific Ocean Park is in exhibit at the Fredericks Gallery, </b></span><br />
<span style="color: #b45f06; font-size: large;"><b>Palm Springs California</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #b45f06; font-size: large;"><b>January 7 through February 20 2012.</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="color: #b45f06; font-size: large;"><b>Fredericks Gallery at Night</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/8Ox_Gr4GAko" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-72161302777660298992012-01-26T10:30:00.000-08:002012-01-29T09:13:27.362-08:00Juergen Mayer H. Architect Graphic Animation<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Intriguing Animation from J. Mayer H. Architect web page.</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>CLICK THIS LINK TO VIEW ANIMATED WEB PAGE</b></span> <a href="http://www.jmayerh.de/">http://www.jmayerh.de/</a>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-35354642037064237382012-01-24T09:30:00.000-08:002012-01-24T09:30:37.281-08:00<span style="font-size: x-large;">Welcome to MoMA The Museum of Modern Art </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;">11 West 53 Street </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;">New York</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Architecture and Design Collection</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>This collection inspires creativity and appreciation of commercial products. </b></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Commercial products as Art</b></span><br />
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Link to Online Gallery Collection<br />
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<a href="http://www.moma.org/collection/browse_results.php?criteria=O%3ADE%3AI%3A1|G%3AHI%3AE%3A1&page_number=1&template_id=6&sort_order=2">http://www.moma.org/collection/browse_results.php?criteria=O%3ADE%3AI%3A1|G%3AHI%3AE%3A1&page_number=1&template_id=6&sort_order=2</a><br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-10145025371083905242012-01-24T02:42:00.000-08:002012-01-24T12:22:25.799-08:00Welcome Asian Tiger Singapore. Marina Bay Sands Skypark.<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Synthetic Information Welcomes an Asian Tiger</b></span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Republic of Singapore</b></span><br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Check out this AMAZING VIDEO New Year 2012</b></span><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="225" mozallowfullscreen="" src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/34783883?title=0&byline=0&color=ff9933" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="400"></iframe><br />
<a href="http://vimeo.com/34783883">Marina Bay Sands Skypark BASE Jump. Singapore 2012.</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/snowdrum">Snow R. Shai</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com/">Vimeo</a>.<br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Singapore Thumbnail History from Wikipedia</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Modern Singapore was founded in 1965 when it separated from Malaysia.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">More millionaires per capita than any other country on earth</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of the top five busiest seaports in the world. </span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Trans-shipment center</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Forth largest financial center in the world</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Founding Member of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) </b></span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Singapore is an island chain of 63 islands.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Singapore lies 85 miles north of the equator.</span></b><br />
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<span style="background-color: #e06666;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></span><br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore</a>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-43856245880916095512012-01-19T06:30:00.000-08:002012-01-19T16:10:29.456-08:00Synthetic Information Welcomes Early Music Radio from Cambridge England<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Celebrating Early Music and Early Music Performance</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: monospace; white-space: pre-wrap;">Broadcasting from the leafy glades and verdant pastures of St. Evenage, England</span>
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<img src="http://www.fromoldbooks.org/OldEngland/pages/1373-Wood-cut-of-a-Knight/1373-Wood-cut-of-a-Knight-q75-500x433.jpg" />
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Listen to Baroque and other early music.<br />
Submit your own performances for on air play.</span></h1>
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<a href="http://earlymusicradio.co.uk/1.html">http://earlymusicradio.co.uk/1.html</a> </h1>
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<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>You may be interested in this information about early music performance and programs at</b></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.cambridgeearlymusic.org/"><b>http://www.cambridgeearlymusic.org/</b></a>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--OkDRzusqeA/TxgtWobIYZI/AAAAAAAAAIM/08vk9MV1DZ4/s1600/Early+Music+Logo+CEM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--OkDRzusqeA/TxgtWobIYZI/AAAAAAAAAIM/08vk9MV1DZ4/s1600/Early+Music+Logo+CEM.jpg" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-61352214667300435092012-01-12T18:02:00.000-08:002012-01-22T19:54:15.082-08:00NIKKEI Japan Report 33 January 12, 2012NIKKEI Japan Report<br />
English Language Program from Japan on Economics and Trade<br />
"Your Guide to the Japanese Economy"<br />
Report Number 33 covers<br />
Internet entertainment media trends in Japan. <br />
Artificial computer generated character voices learn to sing.<br />
Social networking in cute online virtual worlds.<br />
News Maker Segment:<br />
Highlights from the bi-annual Tokyo Motor Show held December 2011.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="368" scrolling="no" src="http://www.ustream.tv/embed/recorded/19715453" style="border: 0px none transparent;" width="608"></iframe>
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Posted January 12, 2012<br />
Hostess Makiko UtsudaUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-51892279771377712772012-01-09T00:48:00.001-08:002012-01-09T00:48:29.750-08:00Classic Paper and Printing Los Angeles California<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="225" mozallowfullscreen="" src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/33359230?title=0&byline=0&portrait=0" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="400"></iframe><br />
<a href="http://vimeo.com/33359230">ink&paper</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/user5313364">Ben Proudfoot</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com/">Vimeo</a>.<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-8220551148440588072012-01-07T23:17:00.000-08:002012-01-19T07:13:00.084-08:00Gallery Show Opening at Fredericks Gallery<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>An Original Collection of Paintings by California Artist David E. Doherty </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>"Images of Pacific Ocean Park"</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Showing at Fredericks Gallery </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>Palm Springs, California</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b>January 7 through February 20</b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Fredericks Gallery at Night: Images of Pacific Ocean Park</span></b></div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="225" mozallowfullscreen="" src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/34651781?title=0&byline=0&portrait=0" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="400"></iframe><br />
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<a href="http://vimeo.com/34651781">Fredericks Gallery Palm Springs Images of POP</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com/">Vimeo</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0