tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post3169645212709109461..comments2024-02-27T04:06:45.675-08:00Comments on Synthetic Information: Why Do Climate Models Fail? Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-36687336500591276882013-12-24T19:11:17.467-08:002013-12-24T19:11:17.467-08:00Thank you for the thoughtful comment. As to the s...Thank you for the thoughtful comment. As to the side bar discussion of the sea ice graph, we chose a very simple transparent analysis method, and it gives what it gives. Of course, there are many clubs in the statistical trend analysis golf bag, some will yield the weak trend you mention. We would have to see the confidence levels and other appropriate measures of accuracy of such findings. Don't forget the error bars. Of course, if there were a really strong long term trend, and if the experiment was sufficiently well designed, the result would be immediately obvious to the eye. Over reliance on complicated statistical analysis techniques is a commonly made mistake in experimental sciences. One can only squeeze so much water from a damp sponge. <br /><br />How many times have we read stuff like: "scientific studies" show that phenomenon A is strongly correlated with phenomenon B, and a few years later "new results show..." forget the old result. After a lifetime of experience in experimental and theoretical sciences, I've seen how these things come and go. Rational skepticism about such claims is always appropriate. Anyhow, this is a very interesting discussion, TY again for the comment.Mathviewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06338734592309442518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529678370891033645.post-60838205613396614042013-12-17T11:05:47.037-08:002013-12-17T11:05:47.037-08:00I DO AGREE with most of your critics on the curren...I DO AGREE with most of your critics on the current climate models. But I do not like your quickie trend analysis of the data in Fig. 1 in the SIDE BAR. Sea ice extent fluctuates (goes up and down) from year to year (on the same date), depending on global northern weather patterns and other influencing variables. But by smoothing (gliding averaging) one can detect very well a downward trend. See e.g. the graphic for the month November at http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2013/12/Figure31.pngDr. Rudolf Posch's Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12456106699278659271noreply@blogger.com